TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198111113114117
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 30–33 Marcin Jadczyk Michal Murawski has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-33 in 63
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1857 vs Jadczyk 1903
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 60% vs Jadczyk 80%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 40% vs Jadczyk 70%
Jadczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski +1 · Jadczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 2.00 / Jadczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13164387
Murawski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 194 days ago (Mar 11) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jadczyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 410 of 643
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 320 of 386
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski75%3 of 4
AwayJadczyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Murawski7Jadczyk3n = 10Murawski took 7 of 10
S3Murawski5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Murawski3Jadczyk5n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5Murawski2Jadczyk1n = 3Murawski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiJadczykM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.941.3−2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime1072 / 1757 vs 981 / 167861%58.5%1072 / 1757 vs 981 / 1678Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykMurawski 2.00/Jadczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Murawski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 11 · 14:15M. Murawski3761011101M. Jadczyk4411129123
WMar 11 · 09:50M. Murawski331111113M. Jadczyk258980
WMar 10 · 05:35M. Murawski4031511113M. Jadczyk361113571
LMar 8 · 13:00M. Murawski361151371M. Jadczyk4691115113
WMar 8 · 07:40M. Murawski381611113M. Jadczyk3114980
LMar 8 · 05:20M. Murawski28413471M. Jadczyk44111111113
WMar 6 · 07:15M. Murawski51116149113M. Jadczyk51911121182
WFeb 27 · 11:45M. Murawski474111011113M. Jadczyk4611812782
LFeb 27 · 08:15M. Murawski50131181172M. Jadczyk51156118113
LFeb 27 · 05:30M. Murawski29711561M. Jadczyk3911611113
M. Murawski10
WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123LMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101WMar 11 · 13:00A. Grela2.252990M. Murawski1.571111113WMar 11 · 11:25P. David1.36712111182M. Murawski3.00111495113WMar 11 · 09:50M. Murawski2.251111113M. Jadczyk1.578980LMar 11 · 08:40M. Murawski1.91412731M. Olejnik1.80111011113LMar 11 · 07:15M. Murawski1.83711141162J. Kosowski1.83118166113LMar 11 · 06:05P. David1.401113113M. Murawski2.7541170LMar 11 · 05:20M. Murawski1.501071211102A. Grela2.501211108123
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532WSep 19 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311911113J. Stecyszyn1.83711971WSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113WSep 19 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.007101171M. Jadczyk1.2211129113LSep 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.91411125113M. Jadczyk1.80119101192WMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101LMar 11 · 09:50M. Murawski2.251111113M. Jadczyk1.578980
Upcoming Matches
M. Murawski
Sep 21 · 05:40M. Murawski2.20G. Felkel1.61—Sep 21 · 06:30M. Murawski1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.73J. Kuzmicz2.00—Sep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73J. Kuzmicz2.00—Sep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski2.10A. Wiecek1.67—Sep 21 · 11:40M. Murawski2.20G. Felkel1.61—Sep 21 · 12:55M. Murawski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Sep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.73D. Michna2.00—
M. Jadczyk
Sep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 21 · 06:55M. Jadczyk2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 21 · 07:45M. Jadczyk1.61D. Michna2.20—Sep 21 · 09:40M. Jadczyk2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 21 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.61D. Michna2.20—Sep 21 · 12:55M. Jadczyk1.73M. Murawski2.00—Sep 21 · 13:45M. Jadczyk1.67A. Wiecek2.10—
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