TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153383
Played Sep 19Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911911117118119
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 60.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 22–37 Marcin Jadczyk Artur Daniel has won 22 of their 59 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Jadczyk beat Daniel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-37 in 59
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 15 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1700 vs Jadczyk 1946
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 40% vs Jadczyk 100%
Jadczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 50% vs Jadczyk 70%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel -2 · Jadczyk +5
Jadczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 2.38 / Jadczyk 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Jadczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13153383
Daniel2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 71 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back22% 26 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Jadczyk1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 407 of 641
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 207
Up 1–0, closes it83% 319 of 384
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel66.7%2 of 3
AwayJadczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Daniel5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Daniel6Jadczyk4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S4Daniel5Jadczyk4n = 9Daniel took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielJadczykD − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.4−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime763 / 1437 vs 985 / 168753.1%58.4%763 / 1437 vs 985 / 1687Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykDaniel 2.38/Jadczyk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 06:05A. Daniel32891141M. Jadczyk3511112113
LAug 30 · 13:45A. Daniel48118101182M. Jadczyk48711127113
LAug 30 · 06:05A. Daniel28311861M. Jadczyk3811511113
WAug 13 · 06:30A. Daniel4212811113M. Jadczyk321011741
LAug 1 · 06:05A. Daniel3551111352M. Jadczyk42113611113
LJul 25 · 06:05A. Daniel371213751M. Jadczyk47141111113
WJul 12 · 06:05A. Daniel4311912113M. Jadczyk316111041
LJul 2 · 13:45A. Daniel193880M. Jadczyk331111113
WJul 2 · 06:55A. Daniel4261114113M. Jadczyk391191271
WJun 20 · 06:55A. Daniel4291111113M. Jadczyk29118641
A. Daniel10
LSep 19 · 12:30A. Daniel2.6371191132D. Wederlich1.44115113113LSep 19 · 11:15A. Daniel2.0011780J. Stecyszyn1.731311113WSep 19 · 10:00D. Kostal2.20118191A. Daniel1.5751111113LSep 19 · 09:20A. Daniel1.50561181G. Poliniewicz2.5011119113WSep 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.503760A. Daniel2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:20A. Daniel2.1011511472J. Stecyszyn1.67611611113LSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141WSep 19 · 04:55D. Kostal2.7571111662A. Daniel1.40118711113WSep 19 · 03:25G. Poliniewicz2.631114841A. Daniel1.44131211113WSep 18 · 21:00A. Daniel1.2881111113M. Woskowicz3.50114491
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532WSep 19 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311911113J. Stecyszyn1.83711971WSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113WSep 19 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.007101171M. Jadczyk1.2211129113LSep 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.91411125113M. Jadczyk1.80119101192WSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141LSep 19 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731814761J. Stecyszyn2.00201211113WSep 19 · 03:45D. Kostal4.003940M. Jadczyk1.221111113LSep 17 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.831191011113M. Jadczyk1.8081112352
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