TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153380
Played Sep 19Finished
Artur Daniel
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711115911113311
Damian Wederlich
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeDamian Wederlich to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Daniel above · Damian Wederlich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 82 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Damian Wederlich at 62.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Artur Daniel 5–7 Damian Wederlich Artur Daniel has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Daniel beat Wederlich 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wederlich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Wederlich
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Daniel 1711 vs Wederlich 1920
Wederlich
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Daniel 40% vs Wederlich 60%
Wederlich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Daniel 60% vs Wederlich 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Daniel -1 · Wederlich +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Wederlich) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDaniel 2.63 / Wederlich 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Wederlich)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13153380
Daniel2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 71 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back22% 26 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Wederlich1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 54 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDaniel3wins
AwayWederlich7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDaniel60%3 of 5
AwayWederlich100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Daniel5Wederlich5n = 10split evenly
S2Daniel3Wederlich7n = 10Wederlich took 7 of 10
S3Daniel6Wederlich4n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S4Daniel3Wederlich4n = 7Wederlich took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanielWederlichD − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.837.0−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanielWederlichBasisWin rate · lifetime764 / 1437 vs 92 / 16053.2%57.5%764 / 1437 vs 92 / 160Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WederlichDaniel 2.63/Wederlich 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Wederlich · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 08:30A. Daniel331111113D. Wederlich163760
LJul 2 · 09:20A. Daniel44116101162D. Wederlich45911122113
LJul 2 · 04:10A. Daniel27127531D. Wederlich43101111113
LJul 24 · 08:00A. Daniel2911990D. Wederlich351311113
LMay 10 · 12:25A. Daniel28611381D. Wederlich4211911113
WMay 10 · 04:00A. Daniel331111113D. Wederlich208660
LMar 29 · 07:15A. Daniel50712111282D. Wederlich541114810113
LMar 27 · 05:00A. Daniel36871291D. Wederlich43111110113
WJan 18 · 14:40A. Daniel3511211113D. Wederlich30511861
LJan 18 · 10:35A. Daniel33881161D. Wederlich4211119113
A. Daniel10
WSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892LSep 19 · 11:15A. Daniel2.0011780J. Stecyszyn1.731311113WSep 19 · 10:00D. Kostal2.20118191A. Daniel1.5751111113LSep 19 · 09:20A. Daniel1.50561181G. Poliniewicz2.5011119113WSep 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.503760A. Daniel2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:20A. Daniel2.1011511472J. Stecyszyn1.67611611113LSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141WSep 19 · 04:55D. Kostal2.7571111662A. Daniel1.40118711113WSep 19 · 03:25G. Poliniewicz2.631114841A. Daniel1.44131211113WSep 18 · 21:00A. Daniel1.2881111113M. Woskowicz3.50114491
D. Wederlich10
WSep 19 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.9113116113J. Stecyszyn1.801181181WSep 19 · 11:40D. Kostal4.005570D. Wederlich1.221111113WSep 19 · 10:50D. Wederlich1.22115811113G. Poliniewicz4.0071111972LSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113LSep 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.503760A. Daniel2.501111113WSep 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.91411125113M. Jadczyk1.80119101192WSep 19 · 05:40D. Wederlich1.2011711113D. Kostal4.33611791WSep 19 · 04:10D. Wederlich1.2551111113G. Poliniewicz3.75116571LSep 19 · 03:00D. Wederlich1.40116641J. Stecyszyn2.7581111113WSep 18 · 15:25D. Wederlich2.00491311113J. Zandecki1.73111111552
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