TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13154741
Played Sep 19Finished
Daniel Kostal
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115811111911––
Artur Daniel
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:43 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Kostal to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Kostal above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 67 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Daniel Kostal at 56.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Kostal 2–1 Artur Daniel Artur Daniel has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:43What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostal 1600 vs Daniel 1705
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostal 0% vs Daniel 40%
Daniel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostal 20% vs Daniel 60%
Daniel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostal -6 · Daniel -1
Kostal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostal 2.20 / Daniel 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Daniel)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13154741
Kostal2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Daniel1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 184 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it94% 91 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it76% 142 of 186
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostal2wins
AwayDaniel1wins
3 of 3 to a deciderKostal leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostaln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayDaniel33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostal0Daniel3n = 3Daniel took 3 of 3
S2Kostal3Daniel0n = 3Kostal took 3 of 3
S3Kostal2Daniel1n = 3Kostal took 2 of 3
S4Kostal1Daniel2n = 3Daniel took 2 of 3
S5Kostal2Daniel1n = 3Kostal took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostalDanielK − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match47.044.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostalDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 66 vs 763 / 143840.9%53.1%27 / 66 vs 763 / 1438Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielKostal 2.20/Daniel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 19 · 04:55D. Kostal4171111662A. Daniel48118711113
WSep 18 · 14:35D. Kostal47611118113A. Daniel3511541142
WMay 20 · 09:30D. Kostal53912912113A. Daniel491110111072
D. Kostal10
LSep 19 · 09:00D. Kostal2.906630J. Stecyszyn1.311111113LSep 19 · 08:05D. Kostal3.00119841J. Stecyszyn1.3691111113LSep 19 · 06:30G. Poliniewicz1.53127118123D. Kostal2.381011811102LSep 19 · 05:40D. Wederlich1.2011711113D. Kostal4.33611791LSep 19 · 04:55D. Kostal2.7571111662A. Daniel1.40118711113LSep 19 · 03:45D. Kostal4.003940M. Jadczyk1.221111113WSep 18 · 14:35A. Daniel1.8511541142D. Kostal1.80611118113LSep 18 · 13:25D. Kostal3.956840M. Olejnik1.141111113WSep 18 · 12:10K. Wisniewski1.68111113672D. Kostal2.05351511113LSep 18 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.661111123D. Kostal2.0094100
A. Daniel10
LSep 19 · 09:20A. Daniel1.50561181G. Poliniewicz2.5011119113WSep 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.503760A. Daniel2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:20A. Daniel2.1011511472J. Stecyszyn1.67611611113LSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141WSep 19 · 04:55D. Kostal2.7571111662A. Daniel1.40118711113WSep 19 · 03:25G. Poliniewicz2.631114841A. Daniel1.44131211113WSep 18 · 21:00A. Daniel1.2881111113M. Woskowicz3.50114491WSep 18 · 19:40A. Daniel1.221111123P. Maruszak4.0053100LSep 18 · 18:30A. Daniel1.3391151152M. Kolek3.25117117113LSep 18 · 14:35A. Daniel1.8511541142D. Kostal1.80611118113
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