TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153381
Played Sep 19Finished
Daniel Kostal
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118117611611
Artur Daniel
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Kostal above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Artur Daniel at 57.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Kostal 2–0 Artur Daniel Artur Daniel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Kostal beat Daniel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kostal 1634 vs Daniel 1693
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostal 40% vs Daniel 80%
Daniel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostal 30% vs Daniel 50%
Daniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostal -1 · Daniel +3
Daniel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostal 2.75 / Daniel 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Daniel)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13153381
Kostal2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Daniel1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 184 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it94% 91 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it76% 142 of 186
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKostal2wins
AwayDaniel0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderKostal leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKostalDanielK − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match50.042.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostalDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 61 vs 762 / 143744.3%53%27 / 61 vs 762 / 1437Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielKostal 2.75/Daniel 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 18 · 14:35D. Kostal47611118113A. Daniel3511541142
WMay 20 · 09:30D. Kostal53912912113A. Daniel491110111072
D. Kostal10
LSep 19 · 05:40D. Wederlich1.2011711113D. Kostal4.33611791LSep 19 · 03:45D. Kostal4.003940M. Jadczyk1.221111113WSep 18 · 14:35A. Daniel1.8511541142D. Kostal1.80611118113LSep 18 · 13:25D. Kostal3.956840M. Olejnik1.141111113WSep 18 · 12:10K. Wisniewski1.68111113672D. Kostal2.05351511113LSep 18 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.661111123D. Kostal2.0094100LSep 18 · 09:20M. Sklensky1.46121110113D. Kostal2.501061271LSep 18 · 07:40K. Wloczko1.411111113D. Kostal2.607470WSep 18 · 06:50K. Wisniewski2.108870D. Kostal1.651111113LSep 18 · 06:00D. Kostal2.60614761M. Sklensky1.41111211113
A. Daniel10
LSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141WSep 19 · 03:25G. Poliniewicz2.631114841A. Daniel1.44131211113WSep 18 · 21:00A. Daniel1.2881111113M. Woskowicz3.50114491WSep 18 · 19:40A. Daniel1.221111123P. Maruszak4.0053100LSep 18 · 18:30A. Daniel1.3391151152M. Kolek3.25117117113WSep 18 · 17:20K. Staszczyk2.257920A. Daniel1.571111113LSep 18 · 16:30A. Daniel1.2591111752B. Sulkowski3.75118911113LSep 18 · 14:35A. Daniel1.8511541142D. Kostal1.80611118113WSep 18 · 13:00A. Daniel1.5011122123K. Wisniewski2.3551011101LSep 18 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80118111192M. Rutkowski1.90911135113
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