TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911611711––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 56.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 7–8 Jakub Kuzmicz Marcin Jadczyk has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:48What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1878 vs Kuzmicz 1937
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Kuzmicz 80%
Kuzmicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 60% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -2 · Kuzmicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.67 / Kuzmicz 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadczyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13164794
Jadczyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 410 of 643
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 320 of 386
Kuzmicz2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 122 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back33% 36 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayKuzmicz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayKuzmicz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk6Kuzmicz4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk7Kuzmicz3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S5Jadczyk2Kuzmicz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykKuzmiczJ − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.3+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime981 / 1679 vs 694 / 119958.4%57.9%981 / 1679 vs 694 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Kuzmicz 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 10:25M. Jadczyk46117101172J. Kuzmicz44411126113
LSep 16 · 04:30M. Jadczyk381091181J. Kuzmicz3912115113
WSep 11 · 15:00M. Jadczyk507111110113J. Kuzmicz4611881272
WSep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk3811115113J. Kuzmicz33691171
WSep 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk51118117143J. Kuzmicz50711911122
LAug 24 · 06:55M. Jadczyk34691181J. Kuzmicz3611113113
LAug 16 · 04:30M. Jadczyk29114771J. Kuzmicz4181111113
WAug 10 · 06:05M. Jadczyk4013511113J. Kuzmicz361111591
WJul 27 · 10:25M. Jadczyk4011711113J. Kuzmicz27411571
LJul 27 · 04:30M. Jadczyk4451211882J. Kuzmicz511110811113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532WSep 19 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311911113J. Stecyszyn1.83711971WSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113WSep 19 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.007101171M. Jadczyk1.2211129113LSep 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.91411125113M. Jadczyk1.80119101192WSep 19 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.6111112113A. Daniel2.20891141LSep 19 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731814761J. Stecyszyn2.00201211113
J. Kuzmicz10
LSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 18 · 15:45J. Kuzmicz1.2612811113J. Stecyszyn2.951011781LSep 18 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz2.20119101142J. Kosowski1.61711129113WSep 18 · 12:55J. Kuzmicz3.00111656113D. Wederlich1.36714111162WSep 18 · 11:15J. Kuzmicz2.757111115113A. Grela1.4011771792LSep 18 · 10:00J. Kuzmicz2.6381231182J. Zandecki1.441110117113WSep 18 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz2.751311133D. Wederlich1.40117110LSep 18 · 06:30J. Zandecki1.4071111113J. Kuzmicz2.75119941LSep 18 · 05:40A. Grela1.44311119113J. Kuzmicz2.6311471182
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