TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145957
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Kuzmicz
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179111012119411
Jakub Kosowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 95 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 57.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 3–2 Jakub Kosowski Jakub Kosowski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:57What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1952 vs Kosowski 1843
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 60% vs Kosowski 40%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 60% vs Kosowski 30%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +2 · Kosowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 2.20 / Kosowski 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kosowski)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13145957
Kuzmicz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 118 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back32% 34 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Kosowski1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 270 of 404
Up 2–0, closes it95% 130 of 137
Up 1–0, closes it86% 212 of 247
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKuzmicz3wins
AwayKosowski2wins
Kuzmicz leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz75%3 of 4
AwayKosowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz4Kosowski1n = 5Kuzmicz took 4 of 5
S2Kuzmicz1Kosowski4n = 5Kosowski took 4 of 5
S3Kuzmicz4Kosowski1n = 5Kuzmicz took 4 of 5
S4Kuzmicz2Kosowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKuzmiczKosowskiKuzmicz − KosowskiBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.035.8+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime692 / 1196 vs 724 / 123457.9%58.7%692 / 1196 vs 724 / 1234Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiKuzmicz 2.20/Kosowski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 1 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz4211811123J. Kosowski366119101
LAug 24 · 10:50J. Kuzmicz38981381J. Kosowski44111111113
WAug 24 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz4413911113J. Kosowski331111561
WAug 16 · 07:20J. Kuzmicz331111113J. Kosowski238960
LApr 20 · 07:40J. Kuzmicz381189101J. Kosowski4391111123
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 18 · 15:45J. Kuzmicz1.2612811113J. Stecyszyn2.951011781WSep 18 · 12:55J. Kuzmicz3.00111656113D. Wederlich1.36714111162WSep 18 · 11:15J. Kuzmicz2.757111115113A. Grela1.4011771792LSep 18 · 10:00J. Kuzmicz2.6381231182J. Zandecki1.441110117113WSep 18 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz2.751311133D. Wederlich1.40117110LSep 18 · 06:30J. Zandecki1.4071111113J. Kuzmicz2.75119941LSep 18 · 05:40A. Grela1.44311119113J. Kuzmicz2.6311471182WSep 18 · 04:55J. Kuzmicz2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619980WSep 18 · 03:45J. Kuzmicz1.801411113M. Olejnik1.9112850WSep 17 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz2.1551111113P. Jendrzejewski1.63117991
J. Kosowski10
WSep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.3811712372J. Kosowski1.538111011113WSep 18 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.44111011113J. Stecyszyn2.63912791LSep 18 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.6710111111102J. Zandecki2.10128137123WSep 18 · 10:50D. Wederlich2.25811891J. Kosowski1.5711711113LSep 18 · 08:30A. Grela2.201111113J. Kosowski1.616570LSep 18 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.613118111D. Wederlich2.2011911133LSep 18 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.801111113J. Kosowski1.915690LSep 18 · 04:55J. Kuzmicz2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619980LSep 18 · 03:25J. Zandecki1.731112163J. Kosowski2.00710140WSep 17 · 14:35J. Zandecki1.801389101J. Kosowski1.91111111123
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