TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119511911––
Adrian Wiecek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:22 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 55.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 25–20 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-20 in 45
Murawski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1890 vs Wiecek 1898
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 60% vs Wiecek 80%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 60% vs Wiecek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski -1 · Wiecek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 1.91 / Wiecek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wiecek)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13165850
Murawski1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Wiecek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 172 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 123 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski4wins
AwayWiecek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski80%4 of 5
AwayWiecek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S2Murawski5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S3Murawski3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S4Murawski2Wiecek5n = 7Wiecek took 5 of 7
S5Murawski2Wiecek1n = 3Murawski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiWiecekM − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.241.0−3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 770 vs 764 / 138859.4%55%457 / 770 vs 764 / 1388Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekMurawski 1.91/Wiecek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski4111611582A. Wiecek49811811113
WMar 9 · 14:40M. Murawski43111011113A. Wiecek38912891
LFeb 25 · 15:05M. Murawski4010111091A. Wiecek4312812113
LFeb 25 · 06:50M. Murawski34711971A. Wiecek4211911113
WFeb 24 · 16:35M. Murawski43111155113A. Wiecek4487111172
LFeb 24 · 05:40M. Murawski25611621A. Wiecek4111811113
WFeb 18 · 12:35M. Murawski531111911113A. Wiecek5191311992
LJan 28 · 13:25M. Murawski28101080A. Wiecek351212113
WJan 28 · 05:00M. Murawski341112113A. Wiecek2571080
LJan 27 · 11:00M. Murawski31144130A. Wiecek421611153
M. Murawski10
LSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123LMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101WMar 11 · 13:00A. Grela2.252990M. Murawski1.571111113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113LSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.67911111152J. Kuzmicz2.10118135113WSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113WSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113LSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 15 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.2011119113M. Jadczyk1.61991181WSep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.50911118113K. Strowski2.5011491172LSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781
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