TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911611117711
Michal Murawski
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Murawski to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Michal Murawski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Murawski at 59.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 14–19 Michal Murawski Dawid Michna has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:53What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Murawski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Murawski
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1930 vs Murawski 1873
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 80% vs Murawski 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 60% vs Murawski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +4 · Murawski +1
Michna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Murawski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.10 / Murawski 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Murawski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13164841
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Murawski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna6wins
AwayMurawski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna80%4 of 5
AwayMurawski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna5Murawski5n = 10split evenly
S2Michna1Murawski9n = 10Murawski took 9 of 10
S3Michna5Murawski5n = 10split evenly
S4Michna7Murawski0n = 7Michna took 7 of 7
S5Michna2Murawski1n = 3Michna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaMurawskiMichna − MurawskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.738.4−0.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaMurawskiBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 941 vs 1072 / 175754.9%61%517 / 941 vs 1072 / 1757Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MurawskiMichna 2.10/Murawski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Murawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Murawski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna4411961172M. Murawski48811117113
WMar 10 · 13:45D. Michna53991212113M. Murawski451111101032
WMar 10 · 04:05D. Michna4211911113M. Murawski35811971
WMar 9 · 10:10D. Michna45101113113M. Murawski351261161
LMar 6 · 04:20D. Michna228770M. Murawski331111113
WMar 5 · 09:20D. Michna51167611113M. Murawski43141111342
WFeb 8 · 11:45D. Michna4211911113M. Murawski37911981
WNov 16 · 15:30D. Michna4212712113M. Murawski4010111091
LNov 16 · 10:10D. Michna2451180M. Murawski351113113
LOct 26 · 15:30D. Michna126150M. Murawski331111113
D. Michna10
WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113
M. Murawski10
WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123LMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101WMar 11 · 13:00A. Grela2.252990M. Murawski1.571111113WMar 11 · 11:25P. David1.36712111182M. Murawski3.00111495113WMar 11 · 09:50M. Murawski2.251111113M. Jadczyk1.578980LMar 11 · 08:40M. Murawski1.91412731M. Olejnik1.80111011113
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