TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611711––––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 48 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 58.1%
48 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 30–32 Grzegorz Felkel Michal Murawski has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-32 in 62
Felkel
Correct
gap of 2 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1868 vs Felkel 1876
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 60% vs Felkel 40%
Murawski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 50% vs Felkel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski -2 · Felkel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 2.20 / Felkel 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Felkel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165434
Murawski2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Felkel1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 217 of 352
Up 2–0, closes it93% 119 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it78% 160 of 204
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski2wins
AwayFelkel8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski33.3%1 of 3
AwayFelkel85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski3Felkel7n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S2Murawski2Felkel8n = 10Felkel took 8 of 10
S3Murawski3Felkel7n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S4Murawski3Felkel3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiFelkelM − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.837.1−6.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 769 vs 688 / 116759.4%59%457 / 769 vs 688 / 1167Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelMurawski 2.20/Felkel 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 05:40M. Murawski3711411113G. Felkel34911681
WMar 9 · 12:10M. Murawski4261111143G. Felkel351166121
LMar 9 · 08:15M. Murawski2681080G. Felkel341112113
LMar 9 · 05:40M. Murawski4211481182G. Felkel45511117113
LFeb 26 · 13:25M. Murawski35116991G. Felkel4291111113
LFeb 26 · 05:00M. Murawski195590G. Felkel331111113
LFeb 25 · 13:50M. Murawski227960G. Felkel331111113
LFeb 25 · 10:10M. Murawski30911281G. Felkel3811511113
LFeb 24 · 13:50M. Murawski198740G. Felkel331111113
LFeb 24 · 10:10M. Murawski36981361G. Felkel44111111113
M. Murawski10
LSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113LSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123LMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101
G. Felkel10
WSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel1.7311119652M. Jadczyk2.00431111113LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113LSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 17 · 14:10K. Wloczko2.757870G. Felkel1.401111113WSep 17 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.57129761G. Felkel2.25101111113WSep 17 · 11:15P. David1.6198100G. Felkel2.201111123
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