TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114113911611511
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 82 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 66–44 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 44 of their 110 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Felkel beat Jadczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-44 in 110
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 22 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1859 vs Jadczyk 1846
Felkel
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 20% vs Jadczyk 0%
Felkel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 40% vs Jadczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -1 · Jadczyk -6
Jadczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.73 / Jadczyk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Felkel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165437
Felkel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 217 of 352
Up 2–0, closes it93% 119 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it78% 160 of 204
Jadczyk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 107 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel6wins
AwayJadczyk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel83.3%5 of 6
AwayJadczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel6Jadczyk4n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2Felkel5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Felkel4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Felkel3Jadczyk4n = 7Jadczyk took 4 of 7
S5Felkel4Jadczyk1n = 5Felkel took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelJadczykF − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.3+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime687 / 1165 vs 978 / 167859%58.3%687 / 1165 vs 978 / 1678Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.73/Jadczyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel49128711113M. Jadczyk43101111472
LSep 17 · 04:30G. Felkel218760M. Jadczyk331111113
LSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel31791141M. Jadczyk3811115113
WSep 16 · 03:45G. Felkel50111189113M. Jadczyk3887111112
WSep 10 · 10:25G. Felkel44611115113M. Jadczyk3911781122
WSep 10 · 04:20G. Felkel52116911153M. Jadczyk44511114132
LSep 9 · 10:25G. Felkel32119751M. Jadczyk3961111113
LAug 26 · 09:40G. Felkel4381191142M. Jadczyk48119116113
WAug 26 · 06:05G. Felkel331111113M. Jadczyk206770
WAug 20 · 06:05G. Felkel331111113M. Jadczyk214980
G. Felkel10
LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 17 · 14:10K. Wloczko2.757870G. Felkel1.401111113WSep 17 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.57129761G. Felkel2.25101111113WSep 17 · 11:15P. David1.6198100G. Felkel2.201111123LSep 17 · 10:25A. Grela1.671111113G. Felkel2.103790LSep 17 · 09:00J. Zandecki2.1071111123G. Felkel1.671145101WSep 17 · 08:05J. Zandecki2.105930G. Felkel1.671111113
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 21 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113J. Kuzmicz2.109770LSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113LSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113LSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532WSep 19 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311911113J. Stecyszyn1.83711971
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