TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139923
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Zandecki
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111141151210––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 71 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 17–44 Grzegorz Felkel Jan Zandecki has won 17 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Felkel beat Zandecki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-44 in 61
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 27 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 1885 vs Felkel 1865
Zandecki
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 40% vs Felkel 60%
Felkel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 50% vs Felkel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki -2 · Felkel +3
Felkel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 2.10 / Felkel 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Felkel)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13139923
Zandecki2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Felkel1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 220 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it93% 118 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it78% 159 of 204
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki4wins
AwayFelkel6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki60%3 of 5
AwayFelkel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S2Zandecki5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S3Zandecki2Felkel8n = 10Felkel took 8 of 10
S4Zandecki3Felkel4n = 7Felkel took 4 of 7
S5Zandecki2Felkel1n = 3Zandecki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiFelkelZ − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.2−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 840 vs 701 / 117455.5%59.7%466 / 840 vs 701 / 1174Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelZandecki 2.10/Felkel 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zandecki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 08:05J. Zandecki175930G. Felkel331111113
LAug 20 · 04:55J. Zandecki337111141G. Felkel3711213113
LAug 14 · 15:25J. Zandecki24611521G. Felkel4011711113
LAug 14 · 03:00J. Zandecki291111341G. Felkel4051311113
WJul 30 · 05:15J. Zandecki3911116113G. Felkel29491151
LJul 13 · 11:15J. Zandecki2461170G. Felkel351113113
WJul 13 · 03:00J. Zandecki39211211133G. Felkel48117118112
LJun 29 · 13:20J. Zandecki4611871372G. Felkel528111111113
WJun 29 · 06:30J. Zandecki481141111113G. Felkel4691161372
WJun 17 · 11:40J. Zandecki331111113G. Felkel122820
J. Zandecki10
WSep 17 · 10:00J. Zandecki1.331212113P. David3.25101070LSep 17 · 08:05J. Zandecki2.105930G. Felkel1.671111113LSep 17 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.7311911113J. Zandecki2.00711661WSep 17 · 05:40P. David1.6799111262J. Zandecki2.101111710113LSep 17 · 04:55J. Zandecki1.8389100A. Grela1.831111123WSep 17 · 03:45J. Zandecki1.8311114113M. Jadczyk1.83571161WSep 13 · 14:10J. Zandecki1.61111189113K. Petas2.2058111152LSep 13 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.6361111113J. Zandecki1.44114961WSep 13 · 11:40A. Dosz1.80111281092J. Zandecki1.917101112113WSep 13 · 10:50J. Zandecki1.80119117113S. Dosz1.9161171182
G. Felkel10
WSep 17 · 08:05J. Zandecki2.105930G. Felkel1.671111113WSep 17 · 07:20A. Grela1.91610110G. Felkel1.801112133WSep 17 · 05:15J. Kosowski1.83141090G. Felkel1.831612113LSep 17 · 04:30M. Jadczyk2.001111113G. Felkel1.738760LSep 17 · 03:00P. David1.619111111113G. Felkel2.2011481392LSep 16 · 14:35G. Felkel1.4421491142K. Wloczko2.631112115113LSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel1.83791141M. Jadczyk1.8311115113LSep 16 · 11:40G. Felkel2.2011370P. David1.611311113WSep 16 · 10:00G. Felkel1.44111197113M. Miastowski2.6395111172LSep 16 · 09:00G. Felkel1.4431011141J. Kuzmicz2.6311129163
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