TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139900
Played Sep 17Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117116––––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 41–62 Grzegorz Felkel Marcin Jadczyk has won 41 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Jadczyk beat Felkel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:00What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-62 in 103
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 21 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1839 vs Felkel 1827
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Felkel 20%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Felkel 20%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -2 · Felkel -4
Felkel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 2.00 / Felkel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Felkel)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13139900
Jadczyk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 107 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Felkel1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 218 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it93% 117 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it78% 157 of 202
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayFelkel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk57.1%4 of 7
AwayFelkel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk7Felkel3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Felkel4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk2Felkel5n = 7Felkel took 5 of 7
S5Jadczyk2Felkel3n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykFelkelJ − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime988 / 1690 vs 699 / 117358.5%59.6%988 / 1690 vs 699 / 1173Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelJadczyk 2.00/Felkel 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 09:40M. Jadczyk48119116113G. Felkel4381191142
LAug 26 · 06:05M. Jadczyk206770G. Felkel331111113
LAug 20 · 06:05M. Jadczyk214980G. Felkel331111113
WAug 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk331111113G. Felkel173680
LAug 19 · 07:45M. Jadczyk51111111992G. Felkel45461311113
LAug 14 · 11:40M. Jadczyk4111911462G. Felkel45611611113
WAug 14 · 04:30M. Jadczyk4011117113G. Felkel28671141
WAug 13 · 04:30M. Jadczyk46811115113G. Felkel4411691172
WAug 3 · 10:25M. Jadczyk43111011113G. Felkel29912621
LAug 3 · 04:30M. Jadczyk4411511982G. Felkel50911811113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 17 · 03:45J. Zandecki1.8311114113M. Jadczyk1.83571161LSep 16 · 13:45M. Miastowski2.00791111113M. Jadczyk1.7311119562WSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel1.83791141M. Jadczyk1.8311115113WSep 16 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5381111113K. Wloczko2.38117771LSep 16 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.57117101172J. Kuzmicz2.25411126113LSep 16 · 09:40P. David1.571011117113M. Jadczyk2.2512871192WSep 16 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.50413641M. Jadczyk1.50111111113LSep 16 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0012911123M. Jadczyk1.7310115101WSep 16 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.001711113P. David1.7315870LSep 16 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731091181J. Kuzmicz2.0012115113
G. Felkel10
WSep 17 · 05:15J. Kosowski1.83141090G. Felkel1.831612113LSep 17 · 03:00P. David1.619111111113G. Felkel2.2011481392LSep 16 · 14:35G. Felkel1.4421491142K. Wloczko2.631112115113LSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel1.83791141M. Jadczyk1.8311115113LSep 16 · 11:40G. Felkel2.2011370P. David1.611311113WSep 16 · 10:00G. Felkel1.44111197113M. Miastowski2.6395111172LSep 16 · 09:00G. Felkel1.4431011141J. Kuzmicz2.6311129163LSep 16 · 08:05G. Felkel1.33411981J. Kuzmicz3.2511811113WSep 16 · 06:30K. Wloczko2.63612431G. Felkel1.44111011113LSep 16 · 05:40M. Miastowski2.75111156113G. Felkel1.4086111182
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