TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139864
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr David
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141181113119
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr David at 59.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 55–26 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 26 of their 81 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
David beat Felkel 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:47What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-26 in 81
David
Correct
gap of 29 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1952 vs Felkel 1835
David
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Felkel 20%
David
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 60% vs Felkel 30%
David
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David -1 · Felkel -3
Felkel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.61 / Felkel 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (David)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13139864
David1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 222 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it97% 117 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it82% 168 of 204
Felkel2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 28 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid6wins
AwayFelkel4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid100%5 of 5
AwayFelkel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S2David5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S3David8Felkel2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S4David4Felkel2n = 6David took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidFelkelD − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.233.7+3.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 986 vs 700 / 117365.8%59.7%649 / 986 vs 700 / 1173Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.61/Felkel 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 11:40P. David351311113G. Felkel2111370
WSep 16 · 04:55P. David3811511113G. Felkel29411681
LAug 27 · 09:00P. David45711115112G. Felkel53119911133
LAug 27 · 03:45P. David4691111692G. Felkel46116711113
WJun 28 · 10:25P. David331111113G. Felkel228590
WJun 28 · 07:20P. David4391211113G. Felkel331110571
LMay 20 · 12:25P. David258980G. Felkel331111113
WMay 20 · 04:00P. David46111113113G. Felkel377131161
LMay 19 · 15:10P. David205870G. Felkel331111113
WMay 19 · 08:25P. David4111811113G. Felkel30811561
P. David10
LSep 16 · 14:10P. David1.2010880J. Kuzmicz4.331211113WSep 16 · 12:30M. Miastowski3.0051191362P. David1.361171111113WSep 16 · 11:40G. Felkel2.2011370P. David1.611311113LSep 16 · 10:50P. David1.25911891K. Wloczko3.7511911113WSep 16 · 09:40P. David1.571011117113M. Jadczyk2.2512871192WSep 16 · 08:30M. Miastowski3.25411761P. David1.3311911113LSep 16 · 07:20P. David1.2512770J. Kuzmicz3.751411113LSep 16 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.001711113P. David1.7315870WSep 16 · 04:55G. Felkel2.50411681P. David1.5011511113WSep 16 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.759760P. David1.251111113
G. Felkel10
LSep 16 · 14:35G. Felkel1.4421491142K. Wloczko2.631112115113LSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel1.83791141M. Jadczyk1.8311115113LSep 16 · 11:40G. Felkel2.2011370P. David1.611311113WSep 16 · 10:00G. Felkel1.44111197113M. Miastowski2.6395111172LSep 16 · 09:00G. Felkel1.4431011141J. Kuzmicz2.6311129163LSep 16 · 08:05G. Felkel1.33411981J. Kuzmicz3.2511811113WSep 16 · 06:30K. Wloczko2.63612431G. Felkel1.44111011113LSep 16 · 05:40M. Miastowski2.75111156113G. Felkel1.4086111182LSep 16 · 04:55G. Felkel2.50411681P. David1.5011511113WSep 16 · 03:45G. Felkel1.83111189113M. Jadczyk1.8387111112
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Sep 17 · 05:40P. David1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 17 · 06:55P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 17 · 08:30P. David1.57A. Grela2.25—Sep 17 · 09:20P. David1.80J. Kosowski1.91—Sep 17 · 10:00P. David1.61J. Zandecki2.20—Sep 17 · 11:15P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Sep 17 · 12:30P. David1.25K. Wloczko3.75—Sep 17 · 13:45P. David1.57A. Grela2.25—
G. Felkel
Sep 17 · 04:30G. Felkel1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 17 · 05:15G. Felkel1.83J. Kosowski1.83—Sep 17 · 07:20G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 17 · 08:05G. Felkel1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 17 · 09:00G. Felkel1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 17 · 10:25G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 17 · 11:15G. Felkel2.20P. David1.61—Sep 17 · 13:20G. Felkel1.83J. Kosowski1.83—Sep 17 · 14:10G. Felkel1.40K. Wloczko2.75—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.