TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135308
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111179111311611
Petr David
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:37 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr David at 72.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 11–14 Petr David Maksymilian Miastowski has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
David
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1862 vs David 1984
David
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 60% vs David 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 70% vs David 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -2 · David +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 3.00 / David 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (David)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13135308
Miastowski3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 82 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
David1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 222 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it97% 117 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it82% 168 of 204
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski8wins
AwayDavid2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski100%6 of 6
AwayDavid50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski6David4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Miastowski9David1n = 10Miastowski took 9 of 10
S3Miastowski7David3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Miastowski2David3n = 5David took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiDavidM − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.631.4+6.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1126 vs 648 / 98452.1%65.9%587 / 1126 vs 648 / 984Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidMiastowski 3.00/David 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 13:45M. Miastowski331111113P. David227780
WAug 23 · 08:30M. Miastowski341211113P. David2410950
WAug 22 · 09:00M. Miastowski351111133P. David2339110
WAug 22 · 07:45M. Miastowski44511611113P. David3911611292
WJun 10 · 14:30M. Miastowski4141511113P. David341113551
WApr 9 · 11:10M. Miastowski331111113P. David188280
WApr 9 · 06:40M. Miastowski49118118113P. David4471161192
LApr 5 · 10:00M. Miastowski4214111161P. David4416413113
WApr 5 · 09:10M. Miastowski341111123P. David2046100
LMar 19 · 15:50M. Miastowski314111421P. David4611816113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 16 · 11:15M. Miastowski1.8011841192J. Kuzmicz1.91911119113LSep 16 · 10:00G. Felkel1.44111197113M. Miastowski2.6395111172WSep 16 · 09:20M. Miastowski1.671112113K. Wloczko2.1071080LSep 16 · 08:30M. Miastowski3.25411761P. David1.3311911113WSep 16 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0012911123M. Jadczyk1.7310115101WSep 16 · 05:40M. Miastowski2.75111156113G. Felkel1.4086111182LSep 16 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.73681181K. Wloczko2.0011116113WSep 16 · 03:00M. Miastowski1.73101111113J. Kuzmicz2.00124961WSep 15 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.7111911123K. Glazowski2.006115101WSep 15 · 12:35M. Sklensky1.871171171M. Miastowski1.8371113113
P. David10
WSep 16 · 11:40G. Felkel2.2011370P. David1.611311113LSep 16 · 10:50P. David1.25911891K. Wloczko3.7511911113WSep 16 · 09:40P. David1.571011117113M. Jadczyk2.2512871192WSep 16 · 08:30M. Miastowski3.25411761P. David1.3311911113LSep 16 · 07:20P. David1.2512770J. Kuzmicz3.751411113LSep 16 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.001711113P. David1.7315870WSep 16 · 04:55G. Felkel2.50411681P. David1.5011511113WSep 16 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.759760P. David1.251111113WSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.508121161P. David1.5011146113WSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
P. David
Sep 16 · 14:10P. David1.20J. Kuzmicz4.33—Sep 17 · 03:00P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Sep 17 · 04:10P. David1.80J. Kosowski1.91—Sep 17 · 05:40P. David1.61J. Zandecki2.20—Sep 17 · 06:55P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 17 · 08:30P. David1.57A. Grela2.25—Sep 17 · 09:20P. David1.80J. Kosowski1.91—Sep 17 · 10:00P. David1.61J. Zandecki2.20—Sep 17 · 11:15P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Sep 17 · 12:30P. David1.25K. Wloczko3.75—
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