TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135028
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012114119116––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 54.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 7–9 Jakub Kuzmicz Maksymilian Miastowski has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Miastowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1861 vs Kuzmicz 1867
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 80% vs Kuzmicz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 80% vs Kuzmicz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +3 · Kuzmicz -1
Miastowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.73 / Kuzmicz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Miastowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13135028
Miastowski1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 116 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Kuzmicz2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 113 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back31% 32 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski4wins
AwayKuzmicz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmicz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Miastowski6Kuzmicz4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Miastowski4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S4Miastowski5Kuzmicz3n = 8Miastowski took 5 of 8
S5Miastowski1Kuzmicz3n = 4Kuzmicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiKuzmiczM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.6+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1125 vs 685 / 118452.2%57.9%587 / 1125 vs 685 / 1184Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.73/Kuzmicz 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski4711714962J. Kuzmicz549111211113
LAug 11 · 11:20M. Miastowski538111111122J. Kuzmicz49115136143
WAug 10 · 13:50M. Miastowski3811115113J. Kuzmicz32581181
WAug 10 · 03:25M. Miastowski331111113J. Kuzmicz186570
LJun 3 · 19:25M. Miastowski246990J. Kuzmicz331111113
WJun 3 · 01:05M. Miastowski4211911113J. Kuzmicz29811461
LJun 2 · 22:40M. Miastowski4110911111J. Kuzmicz4412118133
LJun 2 · 20:35M. Miastowski368117101J. Kuzmicz4011611123
WJun 1 · 19:45M. Miastowski506111012113J. Kuzmicz51119121092
LMay 22 · 11:30M. Miastowski501011811102J. Kuzmicz46129112123
M. Miastowski10
WSep 16 · 13:45M. Miastowski2.00791111113M. Jadczyk1.7311119562LSep 16 · 12:30M. Miastowski3.0051191362P. David1.361171111113LSep 16 · 11:15M. Miastowski1.8011841192J. Kuzmicz1.91911119113LSep 16 · 10:00G. Felkel1.44111197113M. Miastowski2.6395111172WSep 16 · 09:20M. Miastowski1.671112113K. Wloczko2.1071080LSep 16 · 08:30M. Miastowski3.25411761P. David1.3311911113WSep 16 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0012911123M. Jadczyk1.7310115101WSep 16 · 05:40M. Miastowski2.75111156113G. Felkel1.4086111182LSep 16 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.73681181K. Wloczko2.0011116113WSep 15 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.7111911123K. Glazowski2.006115101
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 17 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.4011911123M. Olbrycht2.608119101WSep 17 · 03:40J. Kuzmicz1.301111113D. Kosmal3.057450WSep 16 · 14:10P. David1.2010880J. Kuzmicz4.331211113LSep 16 · 13:20K. Wloczko1.44711911123J. Kuzmicz2.63115116102WSep 16 · 11:15M. Miastowski1.8011841192J. Kuzmicz1.91911119113WSep 16 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.57117101172J. Kuzmicz2.25411126113WSep 16 · 09:00G. Felkel1.4431011141J. Kuzmicz2.6311129163WSep 16 · 08:05G. Felkel1.33411981J. Kuzmicz3.2511811113WSep 16 · 07:20P. David1.2512770J. Kuzmicz3.751411113LSep 16 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.006670
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