TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118911114115
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 58.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 30–33 Marcin Jadczyk Dawid Michna has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-33 in 63
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1938 vs Jadczyk 1846
Michna
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 80% vs Jadczyk 0%
Michna
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 60% vs Jadczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Jadczyk -5
Jadczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.20 / Jadczyk 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Jadczyk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13164817
Michna2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Jadczyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 405 of 635
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 381
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna66.7%4 of 6
AwayJadczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna6Jadczyk4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Michna6Jadczyk4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Michna4Jadczyk3n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
S5Michna2Jadczyk3n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaJadczykM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.7+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime518 / 942 vs 978 / 167855%58.3%518 / 942 vs 978 / 1678Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykMichna 2.20/Jadczyk 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna49711911113M. Jadczyk3911811452
WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna351311113M. Jadczyk2911990
WSep 10 · 06:15D. Michna46117611113M. Jadczyk4171111842
WSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna4011117113M. Jadczyk33871171
LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna226880M. Jadczyk331111113
LSep 4 · 06:05D. Michna53914911102M. Jadczyk511112115123
LSep 3 · 06:05D. Michna4681111792M. Jadczyk48117811113
LAug 26 · 10:25D. Michna4211311892M. Jadczyk44411711113
LAug 26 · 04:30D. Michna26116631M. Jadczyk4291111113
WAug 17 · 13:45D. Michna371115113M. Jadczyk2761380
D. Michna10
LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113LSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113LSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532WSep 19 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311911113J. Stecyszyn1.83711971WSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113LSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990
Upcoming Matches
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