TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118118––––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 30–31 Dawid Michna Grzegorz Felkel has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:59What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-31 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1876 vs Michna 1907
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 20% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -2 · Michna -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Felkel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.67 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Felkel)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13165433
Felkel1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 217 of 352
Up 2–0, closes it93% 119 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it78% 160 of 204
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel4wins
AwayMichna6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel40%2 of 5
AwayMichna60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Felkel4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Felkel5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S4Felkel1Michna6n = 7Michna took 6 of 7
S5Felkel3Michna2n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelMichnaF − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.5−4.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime688 / 1167 vs 518 / 94459%54.9%688 / 1167 vs 518 / 944Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.67/Michna 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel331111113D. Michna226880
LSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel257990D. Michna331111113
LSep 10 · 14:10G. Felkel3411611512D. Michna51911911113
WSep 10 · 07:25G. Felkel49141167113D. Michna48126111182
WSep 9 · 09:00G. Felkel49861311113D. Michna44111111562
LSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel249780D. Michna331111113
LAug 27 · 14:10G. Felkel32114891D. Michna4291111113
LAug 27 · 07:45G. Felkel27119251D. Michna3961111113
WAug 26 · 14:10G. Felkel46911114113D. Michna4411681182
LAug 26 · 07:20G. Felkel4591111772D. Michna49118811113
G. Felkel10
LSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel1.7311119652M. Jadczyk2.00431111113LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113LSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 17 · 14:10K. Wloczko2.757870G. Felkel1.401111113WSep 17 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.57129761G. Felkel2.25101111113WSep 17 · 11:15P. David1.6198100G. Felkel2.201111123LSep 17 · 10:25A. Grela1.671111113G. Felkel2.103790
D. Michna10
LSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133
Upcoming Matches
G. Felkel
D. Michna
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.