TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12109111412117––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 86 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 33–30 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Michna beat Jadczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-30 in 63
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1857 vs Michna 1907
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +2 · Michna -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.67 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165442
Jadczyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 405 of 635
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 381
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayMichna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk75%3 of 4
AwayMichna66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Michna4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk3Michna4n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
S5Jadczyk3Michna2n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykMichnaJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.6−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime979 / 1678 vs 518 / 94458.3%54.9%979 / 1678 vs 518 / 944Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Michna 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 07:45M. Jadczyk3911811452D. Michna49711911113
LSep 10 · 09:40M. Jadczyk2911990D. Michna351311113
LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk4171111842D. Michna46117611113
LSep 9 · 12:55M. Jadczyk33871171D. Michna4011117113
WSep 4 · 10:50M. Jadczyk331111113D. Michna226880
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk511112115123D. Michna53914911102
WSep 3 · 06:05M. Jadczyk48117811113D. Michna4681111792
WAug 26 · 10:25M. Jadczyk44411711113D. Michna4211311892
WAug 26 · 04:30M. Jadczyk4291111113D. Michna26116631
LAug 17 · 13:45M. Jadczyk2761380D. Michna371115113
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 21 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113J. Kuzmicz2.109770WSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel1.7311119652M. Jadczyk2.00431111113LSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113LSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113LSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski1.831181111113M. Jadczyk1.8391113472LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.221011811113G. Poliniewicz4.0012811532
D. Michna10
LSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
D. Michna
Sep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.44J. Kuzmicz2.63—Sep 21 · 14:35D. Michna2.00M. Murawski1.73—Sep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 06:55D. Michna2.00M. Murawski1.73—Sep 22 · 07:45D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 10:50D. Michna1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Sep 22 · 12:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 13:20D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 14:35D. Michna—J. Kosowski——
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