TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121011131012311––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 82 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 31–33 Marcin Jadczyk Michal Murawski has won 31 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-33 in 64
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1855 vs Jadczyk 1870
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 50% vs Jadczyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski -3 · Jadczyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 2.20 / Jadczyk 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165413
Murawski2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jadczyk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 405 of 635
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 381
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski6wins
AwayJadczyk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMurawski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski80%4 of 5
AwayJadczyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Murawski6Jadczyk4n = 10Murawski took 6 of 10
S3Murawski5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Murawski4Jadczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Murawski3Jadczyk1n = 4Murawski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiJadczykM − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.8−0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 770 vs 980 / 167959.4%58.4%457 / 770 vs 980 / 1679Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykMurawski 2.20/Jadczyk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski521181111113M. Jadczyk4491113472
LMar 11 · 14:15M. Murawski3761011101M. Jadczyk4411129123
WMar 11 · 09:50M. Murawski331111113M. Jadczyk258980
WMar 10 · 05:35M. Murawski4031511113M. Jadczyk361113571
LMar 8 · 13:00M. Murawski361151371M. Jadczyk4691115113
WMar 8 · 07:40M. Murawski381611113M. Jadczyk3114980
LMar 8 · 05:20M. Murawski28413471M. Jadczyk44111111113
WMar 6 · 07:15M. Murawski51116149113M. Jadczyk51911121182
WFeb 27 · 11:45M. Murawski474111011113M. Jadczyk4611812782
LFeb 27 · 08:15M. Murawski50131181172M. Jadczyk51156118113
M. Murawski10
LSep 21 · 11:40M. Murawski2.202670G. Felkel1.611111113LSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113LSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski1.831181111113M. Jadczyk1.8391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271WSep 21 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113J. Kuzmicz2.109770WSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel1.7311119652M. Jadczyk2.00431111113LSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113LSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113LSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski1.831181111113M. Jadczyk1.8391113472LSep 19 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38991111113M. Jadczyk1.5311117892WSep 19 · 12:55D. Kostal3.5011751462M. Jadczyk1.289111112113
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