TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111311116111––
Pavel Rissky
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 71 set 4, 11-1
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 4–3 Pavel Rissky Pavel Rissky has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sulc beat Rissky 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rissky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 1.67 / Rissky 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sulc)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13164610
Sulc1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it69% 40 of 58
Rissky2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSulc4wins
AwayRissky3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSulc leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc80%4 of 5
AwayRisskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc5Rissky2n = 7Sulc took 5 of 7
S2Sulc3Rissky4n = 7Rissky took 4 of 7
S3Sulc4Rissky3n = 7Sulc took 4 of 7
S4Sulc2Rissky3n = 5Rissky took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSulcRisskyS − RBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.936.0+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 642 vs 73 / 17350.3%42.2%323 / 642 vs 73 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcSulc 1.67/Rissky 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 20 · 10:50M. Sulc4211911113P. Rissky31311891
LAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc29611661P. Rissky3711411113
LJul 26 · 09:25M. Sulc4811911892P. Rissky41411411113
LJul 11 · 07:25M. Sulc164750P. Rissky331111113
WMay 24 · 15:20M. Sulc4211119113P. Rissky35981171
WMar 29 · 14:55M. Sulc391111173P. Rissky2766150
WMar 8 · 16:35M. Sulc49117137113P. Rissky48811111172
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680
P. Rissky10
LSep 20 · 14:50O. Fiklik1.801112113P. Rissky1.9191090WSep 20 · 12:20A. Langer2.2088111162P. Rissky1.61111188113WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782
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