TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Pavel Rissky
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311119811911––
Martin Sulc
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Rissky above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Rissky 3–3 Martin Sulc Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rissky 1561 vs Sulc 1515
Rissky
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rissky 60% vs Sulc 20%
Rissky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rissky 70% vs Sulc 50%
Rissky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rissky +2 · Sulc -3
Sulc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rissky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRissky 1.83 / Sulc 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rissky)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13161785
Rissky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 43 days ago (Aug 08) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sulc1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRissky3wins
AwaySulc3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRisskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySulc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rissky2Sulc4n = 6Sulc took 4 of 6
S2Rissky3Sulc3n = 6split evenly
S3Rissky3Sulc3n = 6split evenly
S4Rissky3Sulc1n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricRisskySulcR − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.837.2−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRisskySulcBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 182 vs 326 / 64742.9%50.4%78 / 182 vs 326 / 647Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RisskyRissky 1.83/Sulc 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rissky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 8 · 16:55P. Rissky3711411113M. Sulc29611661
WJul 26 · 09:25P. Rissky41411411113M. Sulc4811911892
WJul 11 · 07:25P. Rissky331111113M. Sulc164750
LMay 24 · 15:20P. Rissky35981171M. Sulc4211119113
LMar 29 · 14:55P. Rissky2766150M. Sulc391111173
LMar 8 · 16:35P. Rissky48811111172M. Sulc49117137113
P. Rissky10
WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060WJul 26 · 09:25P. Rissky1.95411411113M. Sulc1.7511911892
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113LAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LJul 26 · 09:25P. Rissky1.95411411113M. Sulc1.7511911892
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