TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 8Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114611611––
Pavel Rissky
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 3–2 Pavel Rissky Pavel Rissky has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:09What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1501 vs Rissky 1553
Rissky
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 60% vs Rissky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 60% vs Rissky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc -1 · Rissky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulc) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 1.80 / Rissky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12382084
Sulc1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 62 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 42 of 55
Rissky1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 14 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSulc3wins
AwayRissky2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSulc leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc75%3 of 4
AwayRisskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc4Rissky1n = 5Sulc took 4 of 5
S2Sulc2Rissky3n = 5Rissky took 3 of 5
S3Sulc3Rissky2n = 5Sulc took 3 of 5
S4Sulc1Rissky2n = 3Rissky took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSulcRisskyS − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.836.8+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 641 vs 87 / 20351.2%42.9%328 / 641 vs 87 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcSulc 1.80/Rissky 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rissky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 26 · 09:25M. Sulc4811911892P. Rissky41411411113
LJul 11 · 07:25M. Sulc164750P. Rissky331111113
WMay 24 · 15:20M. Sulc4211119113P. Rissky35981171
WMar 29 · 14:55M. Sulc391111173P. Rissky2766150
WMar 8 · 16:35M. Sulc49117137113P. Rissky48811111172
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113WSep 10 · 15:25M. Sochor2.0011119252M. Sulc1.73991111113
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060
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