TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109172
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116118––––
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 57.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 16–33 Jan Hrncir Martin Sulc has won 16 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hrncir
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-33 in 49
Hrncir
Wrong
gap of 17 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1531 vs Hrncir 1495
Sulc
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 60% vs Hrncir 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 50% vs Hrncir 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc +2 · Hrncir -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hrncir)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 2.10 / Hrncir 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Hrncir)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13109172
Sulc2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 75 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back28% 29 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Hrncir1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc4wins
AwayHrncir6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHrncir leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc75%3 of 4
AwayHrncir83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc4Hrncir6n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S2Sulc3Hrncir7n = 10Hrncir took 7 of 10
S3Sulc7Hrncir3n = 10Sulc took 7 of 10
S4Sulc4Hrncir4n = 8split evenly
S5Sulc1Hrncir2n = 3Hrncir took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcHrncirS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.840.3−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 649 vs 106 / 19351%54.9%331 / 649 vs 106 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirSulc 2.10/Hrncir 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 14 · 18:20M. Sulc—14711133J. Hrncir—12111111
LApr 30 · 18:00M. Sulc—1011461J. Hrncir—12711113
LApr 30 · 14:55M. Sulc—861212132J. Hrncir—11111010153
WApr 17 · 20:20M. Sulc—1112113J. Hrncir—51080
LApr 6 · 21:25M. Sulc—138115112J. Hrncir—1111511133
LApr 6 · 19:20M. Sulc—861171J. Hrncir—11118113
LMar 16 · 21:20M. Sulc—8590J. Hrncir—1111113
WMar 13 · 16:55M. Sulc—121213113J. Hrncir—10101571
WFeb 26 · 15:50M. Sulc—791111113J. Hrncir—11118772
LFeb 20 · 17:20M. Sulc—741161J. Hrncir—11113113
M. Sulc10
WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113WSep 10 · 15:25M. Sochor2.0011119252M. Sulc1.73991111113LSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113WSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc2.20811116113O. Fiklik1.6111271152LSep 9 · 19:20M. Sulc2.003580M. Kulisek1.731111113LSep 9 · 18:20M. Sulc3.0067120M. Brozek1.361111143LSep 7 · 17:55D. Hyza1.4511511113M. Sulc2.60711881LSep 7 · 16:50M. Sulc2.50891141D. Hyza1.5011117113WSep 7 · 15:20A. Rek1.537314101M. Sulc2.38111112123WSep 7 · 14:50M. Sochor1.836880M. Sulc1.831111113
J. Hrncir10
WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560LSep 10 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.4410580M. Sochor2.631211113WSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970
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