TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110808
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Hrncir
Home
1.72
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115116––––
Jiri Volek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
117115116––––
H2H Jan Hrncir 2–2 Jiri Volek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Hrncir beat Volek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Hrncir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1483 vs Volek 1481
Hrncir
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 40% vs Volek 0%
Hrncir
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 60% vs Volek 30%
Hrncir
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -2 · Volek -5
Volek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrncir) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volek form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 1.72 / Volek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrncir)+0.2pp
TT Cup · #13110808
Hrncir1.72
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Volek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHrncir2wins
AwayVolek2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrncir2Volek2n = 4split evenly
S2Hrncir1Volek3n = 4Volek took 3 of 4
S3Hrncir3Volek1n = 4Hrncir took 3 of 4
S4Hrncir2Volek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHrncirVolekH − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.841.8−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirVolekBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 194 vs 39 / 8854.6%44.3%106 / 194 vs 39 / 88Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirHrncir 1.72/Volek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 10 · 14:55J. Hrncir—11312113J. Volek—9111071
LJan 28 · 23:05J. Hrncir—31411852J. Volek—1112511113
LJan 28 · 21:55J. Hrncir—221131J. Volek—11118113
WOct 2 · 19:25J. Hrncir—1141011113J. Volek—91112252
J. Hrncir10
LSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680LSep 10 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.4410580M. Sochor2.631211113WSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970
J. Volek10
LSep 10 · 17:59K. Hrnic1.831111113J. Volek1.837560LSep 10 · 16:55J. Volek2.005121131M. Sochor1.7311149113LSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113LSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113
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