TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 8Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1167111181412––
Pavel Rissky
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:09 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 80 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 54.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 4–9 Pavel Rissky Adam Martin Rek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rissky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Rissky
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1737 vs Rissky 1553
Rek
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Rissky 60%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 80% vs Rissky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Rissky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.83 / Rissky 1.83
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Rek)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12382085
Rek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Rissky1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek2wins
AwayRissky8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRissky leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek66.7%2 of 3
AwayRissky100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek3Rissky7n = 10Rissky took 7 of 10
S2Rek5Rissky5n = 10split evenly
S3Rek4Rissky6n = 10Rissky took 6 of 10
S4Rek1Rissky5n = 6Rissky took 5 of 6
S5Rek1Rissky3n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekRisskyRek − RisskyBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.537.5−5.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 497 vs 87 / 20357.6%42.9%286 / 497 vs 87 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.83/Rissky 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 5 · 06:50A. Rek331111113P. Rissky155460
LDec 22 · 10:55A. Rek4596111182P. Rissky44111174113
LDec 22 · 09:55A. Rek27106110P. Rissky361211133
LDec 5 · 17:50A. Rek199550P. Rissky331111113
WNov 22 · 16:25A. Rek39111133113P. Rissky3826111182
LNov 22 · 15:45A. Rek3811138422P. Rissky40211111153
LNov 22 · 13:25A. Rek2912980P. Rissky361411113
LNov 21 · 18:40A. Rek18321121P. Rissky3911116113
LNov 21 · 17:40A. Rek45811111142P. Rissky52118611163
LJul 8 · 10:00A. Rek32811761P. Rissky4211911113
A. Rek10
WSep 17 · 10:38O. Fiklik2.2510960A. Rek1.571211113LSep 17 · 09:25A. Rek1.57111259102O. Fiklik2.259101111123WSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123WSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113WSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581WSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113LSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122LSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060
Upcoming Matches
A. Rek
Nothing scheduled
P. Rissky
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