TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139693
Played Sep 16Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1197118111513411
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
2.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 100 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 63.6%
100 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 36–27 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 27 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Rek beat Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-27 in 63
Rek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1624 vs Jr 1585
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 60% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Jr 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +3 · Jr -1
Rek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.50 / Jr 2.45
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Rek)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13139693
Rek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it72% 71 of 98
Jr2.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 84 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek6wins
AwayJr4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek83.3%5 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek6Jr4n = 10Rek took 6 of 10
S2Rek4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Rek9Jr1n = 10Rek took 9 of 10
S4Rek4Jr3n = 7Rek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekJrR − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.0+2.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 540 vs 391 / 79458%49.2%313 / 540 vs 391 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.50/Jr 2.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek4511781542V. Jr559111113113
WSep 16 · 09:25A. Rek46111311113V. Jr27615331
WSep 11 · 10:55A. Rek4111811113V. Jr30611491
WSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek381413113V. Jr31121180
LSep 1 · 14:35A. Rek407611161V. Jr4511115183
LSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek31861161V. Jr4111118113
WAug 31 · 11:20A. Rek351113113V. Jr2891180
WAug 21 · 10:55A. Rek351311113V. Jr2511770
LAug 17 · 11:25A. Rek283101141V. Jr4111127113
WAug 17 · 10:25A. Rek4491211123V. Jr3711106101
A. Rek10
WSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581WSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113LSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122LSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113LSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113WSep 11 · 14:25A. Rek1.521112118113O. Fiklik2.35131071182WSep 11 · 13:25D. Hyza1.91113741A. Rek1.8071111113WSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek1.571111123O. Fiklik2.2565100
V. Jr10
LSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123WSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 14 · 14:00V. Jr2.2091141192O. Fiklik1.60119114113WSep 14 · 12:20A. Langer1.809890V. Jr1.911111113LSep 14 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.571171211113V. Jr2.2531114782WSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr2.001312113J. Vonasek1.73111080WSep 13 · 17:59V. Jr1.91119119113A. Langer1.8081191152WSep 13 · 16:20D. Sochor2.2591080V. Jr1.571112113WSep 13 · 15:50A. Langer1.834780V. Jr1.831111113
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