TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125096
Played Sep 13Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711811––––
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 56–54 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 54 of their 110 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:15What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-54 in 110
Langer
Wrong
gap of 2 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1623 vs Jr 1519
Langer
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Jr 20%
Langer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Jr 40%
Langer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +1 · Jr -3
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13125096
Langer1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Jr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger6wins
AwayJr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLanger leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger100%5 of 5
AwayJr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Langer7Jr3n = 10Langer took 7 of 10
S4Langer3Jr6n = 9Jr took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerJrL − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.7+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerJrBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 523 vs 389 / 79249.1%49.1%257 / 523 vs 389 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrLanger 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer501111125113V. Jr47513101182
WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer47128124113V. Jr501011101182
LSep 7 · 10:20A. Langer28641171V. Jr3911116113
WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer4371411113V. Jr351112391
WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer331111113V. Jr197480
LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer3811101251V. Jr46131210113
LAug 27 · 14:35A. Langer348115101V. Jr4011611123
WAug 27 · 11:55A. Langer4211911113V. Jr25711251
LAug 26 · 10:40A. Langer36911881V. Jr4111811113
WAug 26 · 07:55A. Langer4311128123V. Jr3541011101
A. Langer10
WSep 13 · 14:20D. Sochor2.50611961A. Langer1.5011711113LSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer2.25561161J. Vonasek1.5711117113LSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480LSep 9 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011121131M. Brozek1.5013148113WSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113
V. Jr10
LSep 13 · 14:50V. Jr1.731611911102M. Beran2.00185119123LSep 11 · 13:55V. Jr1.903111021D. Hyza1.8011912113LSep 11 · 12:55V. Jr2.2571131132O. Fiklik1.57118119113WSep 11 · 11:55V. Jr2.6361111133D. Hyza1.441195111LSep 11 · 10:55V. Jr2.38611491A. Rek1.5311811113LSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113LSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780WSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
V. Jr
Nothing scheduled
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