TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127026
Played Sep 14Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111210118––––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 65 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 43–55 Jan Vonasek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 43 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-55 in 98
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1566 vs Vonasek 1529
Jr
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Vonasek 40%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Vonasek 30%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +3 · Vonasek -1
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Vonasek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13127026
Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 82 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Vonasek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 68 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr60%3 of 5
AwayVonasek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S3Jr4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Vonasek5n = 9Vonasek took 5 of 9
S5Jr1Vonasek3n = 4Vonasek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrVonasekJ − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.343.9−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 795 vs 358 / 73249.3%48.9%392 / 795 vs 358 / 732Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekJr 2.00/Vonasek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr31712571J. Vonasek43111011113
LAug 31 · 10:20V. Jr33135150J. Vonasek431511173
LAug 27 · 13:25V. Jr4341181192J. Vonasek48118117113
WAug 26 · 09:25V. Jr4411129123J. Vonasek3981011101
WAug 17 · 12:55V. Jr4313712113J. Vonasek4111111091
LAug 7 · 10:29V. Jr4711911882J. Vonasek47711711113
LAug 7 · 08:25V. Jr4711871562J. Vonasek559111113113
LJun 3 · 08:25V. Jr33861181J. Vonasek4011117113
WMay 22 · 10:00V. Jr50116118143J. Vonasek44811211122
LMay 22 · 08:25V. Jr325111241J. Vonasek3911314113
V. Jr10
WSep 13 · 17:59V. Jr1.91119119113A. Langer1.8081191152WSep 13 · 16:20D. Sochor2.2591080V. Jr1.571112113WSep 13 · 15:50A. Langer1.834780V. Jr1.831111113LSep 13 · 14:50V. Jr1.731611911102M. Beran2.00185119123LSep 11 · 13:55V. Jr1.903111021D. Hyza1.8011912113LSep 11 · 12:55V. Jr2.2571131132O. Fiklik1.57118119113WSep 11 · 11:55V. Jr2.6361111133D. Hyza1.441195111LSep 11 · 10:55V. Jr2.38611491A. Rek1.5311811113LSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113WSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 11:55J. Vonasek1.915141591O. Fiklik1.80111613113LSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer2.25561161J. Vonasek1.5711117113LSep 9 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.256670M. Brozek1.571111113LSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480LSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113
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