TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143312
Played Sep 17Finished
Petr Moravec
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211117711511––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:02 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Moravec above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 66.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Petr Moravec 4–7 Adam Martin Rek Petr Moravec has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:02What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Rek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1503 vs Rek 1640
Rek
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 0% vs Rek 60%
Rek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 30% vs Rek 50%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -5 · Rek -1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.50 / Rek 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Rek)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13143312
Moravec2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 13 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Rek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 101 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it73% 74 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayRek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec50%2 of 4
AwayRek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec4Rek6n = 10Rek took 6 of 10
S2Moravec7Rek3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Moravec5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S4Moravec1Rek8n = 9Rek took 8 of 9
S5Moravec1Rek2n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecRekM − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.939.4−3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecRekBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 217 vs 315 / 54250.7%58.1%110 / 217 vs 315 / 542Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekMoravec 2.50/Rek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec25211751A. Rek4011711113
LSep 16 · 08:25P. Moravec31711581A. Rek4111811113
LApr 23 · 14:55P. Moravec4181111652A. Rek48119611113
WApr 13 · 18:25P. Moravec50811119113A. Rek3511221192
LApr 13 · 16:25P. Moravec25271151A. Rek3811115113
WMar 20 · 16:55P. Moravec351111133A. Rek2366110
LNov 13 · 15:40P. Moravec361311391A. Rek46111311113
LOct 23 · 16:10P. Moravec341158101A. Rek3841111123
WSep 11 · 19:20P. Moravec4611119153A. Rek379411131
LFeb 15 · 19:30P. Moravec3661211432A. Rek481110511113
P. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752WSep 17 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.73711891P. Moravec2.0011711113LSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432LSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581LSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113WSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132LSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690
A. Rek10
WSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123LSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113WSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581WSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113LSep 15 · 09:58M. Brozek1.44116117113A. Rek2.6381191122LSep 15 · 08:55A. Rek2.504990M. Brozek1.501111113LSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113LSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113WSep 11 · 14:25A. Rek1.521112118113O. Fiklik2.35131071182
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