TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143494
Played Sep 17Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1315117811117115
Petr Moravec
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 99 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ales Langer at 55.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 3–1 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Langer
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1532 vs Moravec 1484
Langer
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 0% vs Moravec 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 20% vs Moravec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -5 · Moravec -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Langer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.67 / Moravec 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Langer)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13143494
Langer1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 64 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it72% 47 of 65
Moravec2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 13 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayMoravec1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLanger leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoravecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Moravec1n = 4Langer took 3 of 4
S2Langer4Moravec0n = 4Langer took 4 of 4
S3Langer1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S4Langer3Moravec1n = 4Langer took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLangerMoravecL − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.035.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 532 vs 109 / 21548.5%50.7%258 / 532 vs 109 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LangerLanger 1.67/Moravec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 18 · 16:25A. Langer3911116113P. Moravec33851191
WApr 15 · 18:05A. Langer4111118113P. Moravec21421141
WApr 15 · 17:25A. Langer4071111113P. Moravec36119971
LMar 18 · 17:55A. Langer48111241292P. Moravec526101114113
A. Langer10
LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123LSep 17 · 06:55A. Langer1.913121111102O. Fiklik1.80111496123LSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752LSep 14 · 12:20A. Langer1.809890V. Jr1.911111113LSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:20A. Langer1.91119111192O. Fiklik1.80511138113LSep 13 · 17:59V. Jr1.91119119113A. Langer1.8081191152WSep 13 · 16:50M. Beran1.73811120A. Langer2.001113143LSep 13 · 15:50A. Langer1.834780V. Jr1.831111113WSep 13 · 14:20D. Sochor2.50611961A. Langer1.5011711113
P. Moravec10
WSep 17 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.73711891P. Moravec2.0011711113LSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432LSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581LSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113WSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132LSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690
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