TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139678
Played Sep 16Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711116114113
Petr Moravec
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 84 set 5, 11-3
84 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 3–1 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Vonasek beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.53 / Moravec 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13139678
Vonasek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it81% 51 of 63
Moravec2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 16 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVonasek3wins
AwayMoravec1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVonasek leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S2Vonasek2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
S3Vonasek3Moravec1n = 4Vonasek took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVonasekMoravecV − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.035.5+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 735 vs 109 / 21349%51.2%360 / 735 vs 109 / 213Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.53/Moravec 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek44101211113P. Moravec341210661
WMay 8 · 12:55J. Vonasek503101411123P. Moravec531112128102
WJan 27 · 19:00J. Vonasek331111113P. Moravec226880
LJan 27 · 16:20J. Vonasek259790P. Moravec331111113
J. Vonasek10
WSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123LSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113WSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752WSep 14 · 12:50J. Vonasek1.83116611113O. Fiklik1.8371111682WSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr2.001312113J. Vonasek1.73111080LSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113WSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 11:55J. Vonasek1.915141591O. Fiklik1.80111613113
P. Moravec10
LSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581LSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113WSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132LSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690WSep 8 · 17:55J. Hendrych1.95811981P. Moravec1.7511911113LSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113WSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113
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