TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129477
Played Sep 14Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210911117115
Ales Langer
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 96 set 5, 11-5
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 38–23 Ales Langer Ales Langer has won 23 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vonasek beat Langer 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.53 / Langer 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13129477
Vonasek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 68 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Langer2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 65 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek7wins
AwayLanger3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek83.3%5 of 6
AwayLanger50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek6Langer4n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S2Vonasek7Langer3n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Vonasek6Langer4n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S4Vonasek3Langer4n = 7Langer took 4 of 7
S5Vonasek3Langer2n = 5Vonasek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekLangerV − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.435.1+5.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 731 vs 258 / 52949%48.8%358 / 731 vs 258 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.53/Langer 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 11:20J. Vonasek351311113A. Langer2711970
WSep 9 · 09:55J. Vonasek4011117113A. Langer28561161
LSep 9 · 07:55J. Vonasek197480A. Langer331111113
WSep 2 · 11:20J. Vonasek331111113A. Langer148240
LAug 27 · 10:55J. Vonasek4211117762A. Langer42541111113
LAug 26 · 06:55J. Vonasek42541111112A. Langer47111184133
WAug 7 · 06:55J. Vonasek531191111113A. Langer3991121342
WJul 10 · 17:49J. Vonasek48311129133A. Langer451121011112
WJul 10 · 16:20J. Vonasek4011117113A. Langer32991131
WJul 8 · 12:55J. Vonasek529111110113A. Langer4411951272
J. Vonasek10
WSep 14 · 12:50J. Vonasek1.83116611113O. Fiklik1.8371111682WSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr2.001312113J. Vonasek1.73111080LSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113WSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 11:55J. Vonasek1.915141591O. Fiklik1.80111613113LSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer2.25561161J. Vonasek1.5711117113LSep 9 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.256670M. Brozek1.571111113LSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480
A. Langer10
LSep 14 · 12:20A. Langer1.809890V. Jr1.911111113LSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:20A. Langer1.91119111192O. Fiklik1.80511138113LSep 13 · 17:59V. Jr1.91119119113A. Langer1.8081191152WSep 13 · 16:50M. Beran1.73811120A. Langer2.001113143LSep 13 · 15:50A. Langer1.834780V. Jr1.831111113WSep 13 · 14:20D. Sochor2.50611961A. Langer1.5011711113LSep 9 · 09:55A. Langer2.25561161J. Vonasek1.5711117113LSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480
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