TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 8Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11413151210119––
Pavel Rissky
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Langer above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 67.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 2–6 Pavel Rissky Ales Langer has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rissky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Rissky
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1481 vs Rissky 1590
Rissky
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Rissky 80%
Rissky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 30% vs Rissky 60%
Rissky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -1 · Rissky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Rissky) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rissky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.25 / Rissky 1.57
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Rissky)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12383010
Langer2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 51 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Rissky1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 12 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLanger2wins
AwayRissky6wins
4 of 8 to a deciderRissky leads 6–2, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger33.3%1 of 3
AwayRissky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Rissky5n = 8Rissky took 5 of 8
S2Langer3Rissky5n = 8Rissky took 5 of 8
S3Langer2Rissky6n = 8Rissky took 6 of 8
S4Langer4Rissky2n = 6Langer took 4 of 6
S5Langer1Rissky3n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricLangerRisskyL − RBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.942.4−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 514 vs 89 / 20648.3%43.2%248 / 514 vs 89 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RisskyLanger 2.25/Rissky 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Rissky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 8 · 10:55A. Langer4211119113P. Rissky29721191
LJul 11 · 09:25A. Langer50101111992P. Rissky45122911113
LJun 11 · 13:39A. Langer184860P. Rissky331111113
WJun 11 · 12:50A. Langer5811131111123P. Rissky53131578102
LMay 24 · 14:20A. Langer4361191162P. Rissky48119116113
LNov 22 · 14:25A. Langer32114981P. Rissky3851111113
LJul 8 · 07:20A. Langer2913790P. Rissky371511113
LJun 14 · 09:25A. Langer47134712112P. Rissky5611111110133
A. Langer10
LSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162WSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113LSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123LSep 17 · 06:55A. Langer1.913121111102O. Fiklik1.80111496123
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
Nothing scheduled
P. Rissky
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