TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145658
Played Sep 17Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118118––––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAles Langer above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8
53 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 4–1 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.91 / Moravec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13145658
Langer1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Moravec1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 44 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLanger4wins
AwayMoravec1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLanger leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Moravec2n = 5Langer took 3 of 5
S2Langer5Moravec0n = 5Langer took 5 of 5
S3Langer1Moravec4n = 5Moravec took 4 of 5
S4Langer4Moravec1n = 5Langer took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricLangerMoravecL − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match44.437.4+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 533 vs 110 / 21748.6%50.7%259 / 533 vs 110 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecLanger 1.91/Moravec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer541311811113P. Moravec4515711752
WJul 18 · 16:25A. Langer3911116113P. Moravec33851191
WApr 15 · 18:05A. Langer4111118113P. Moravec21421141
WApr 15 · 17:25A. Langer4071111113P. Moravec36119971
LMar 18 · 17:55A. Langer48111241292P. Moravec526101114113
A. Langer10
WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123LSep 17 · 06:55A. Langer1.913121111102O. Fiklik1.80111496123LSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752LSep 14 · 12:20A. Langer1.809890V. Jr1.911111113LSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:20A. Langer1.91119111192O. Fiklik1.80511138113LSep 13 · 17:59V. Jr1.91119119113A. Langer1.8081191152WSep 13 · 16:50M. Beran1.73811120A. Langer2.001113143LSep 13 · 15:50A. Langer1.834780V. Jr1.831111113
P. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752WSep 17 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.73711891P. Moravec2.0011711113LSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432LSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581LSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113WSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132
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