TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 8Finished
Pavel Rissky
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210911117118
Ondrej Fiklik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Rissky above · Ondrej Fiklik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Rissky 9–17 Ondrej Fiklik Pavel Rissky has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fiklik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-17 in 26
Fiklik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rissky 1522 vs Fiklik 1501
Rissky
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rissky 80% vs Fiklik 40%
Rissky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rissky 50% vs Fiklik 20%
Rissky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rissky +1 · Fiklik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Fiklik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiklik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRissky 2.25 / Fiklik 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Fiklik)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12382082
Rissky2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 14 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Fiklik1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 103 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRissky2wins
AwayFiklik8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderFiklik leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRissky20%1 of 5
AwayFiklik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rissky5Fiklik5n = 10split evenly
S2Rissky4Fiklik6n = 10Fiklik took 6 of 10
S3Rissky4Fiklik6n = 10Fiklik took 6 of 10
S4Rissky4Fiklik5n = 9Fiklik took 5 of 9
S5Rissky1Fiklik5n = 6Fiklik took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRisskyFiklikR − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.3−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRisskyFiklikBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 201 vs 556 / 120742.3%46.1%85 / 201 vs 556 / 1207Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiklikRissky 2.25/Fiklik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Fiklik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rissky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky52912911113O. Fiklik47111011782
LJul 19 · 16:25P. Rissky48121171172O. Fiklik541013119113
LJul 11 · 14:10P. Rissky259880O. Fiklik331111113
WJul 11 · 13:25P. Rissky4814811153O. Fiklik4512119131
LJun 6 · 08:55P. Rissky331051171O. Fiklik4012116113
LApr 5 · 07:50P. Rissky33114991O. Fiklik3411111113
LDec 29 · 07:55P. Rissky4912811992O. Fiklik481011511113
LDec 19 · 08:55P. Rissky4691191162O. Fiklik47118116113
LNov 21 · 13:25P. Rissky4151311482O. Fiklik531111911113
LNov 16 · 11:10P. Rissky4011114862O. Fiklik42451111113
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060
O. Fiklik10
LSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162LSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182WSep 18 · 07:55V. Jr2.2011129932O. Fiklik1.617101111113LSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192LSep 17 · 10:38O. Fiklik2.2510960A. Rek1.571211113WSep 17 · 09:25A. Rek1.57111259102O. Fiklik2.259101111123LAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161LAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980
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