TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Aug 8Finished
Pavel Rissky
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711211119911––
Ales Langer
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Rissky above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 73.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Rissky 6–1 Ales Langer Ales Langer has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rissky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Rissky
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rissky 1545 vs Langer 1443
Rissky
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rissky 80% vs Langer 20%
Rissky
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rissky 50% vs Langer 20%
Rissky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rissky +4 · Langer -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Rissky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRissky 1.50 / Langer 2.50
Signal prob.74% / 27%
Edge (Rissky)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12380098
Rissky1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 12 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Langer2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 51 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRissky6wins
AwayLanger1wins
4 of 7 to a deciderRissky leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRissky80%4 of 5
AwayLangern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rissky5Langer2n = 7Rissky took 5 of 7
S2Rissky5Langer2n = 7Rissky took 5 of 7
S3Rissky5Langer2n = 7Rissky took 5 of 7
S4Rissky2Langer3n = 5Langer took 3 of 5
S5Rissky3Langer1n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricRisskyLangerR − LBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match44.339.6+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRisskyLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 198 vs 247 / 51342.4%48.2%84 / 198 vs 247 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RisskyRissky 1.50/Langer 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.5%
Rissky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 11 · 09:25P. Rissky45122911113A. Langer50101111992
WJun 11 · 13:39P. Rissky331111113A. Langer184860
LJun 11 · 12:50P. Rissky53131578102A. Langer5811131111123
WMay 24 · 14:20P. Rissky48119116113A. Langer4361191162
WNov 22 · 14:25P. Rissky3851111113A. Langer32114981
WJul 8 · 07:20P. Rissky371511113A. Langer2913790
WJun 14 · 09:25P. Rissky5611111110133A. Langer47134712112
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111WJul 26 · 10:38P. Rissky1.671112113M. Sochor2.1081060
A. Langer10
LSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162WSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113LSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123WAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091
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