TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811113611911––
Martin Sulc
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sulc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Sulc at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 28–36 Martin Sulc Ales Langer has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-36 in 64
Sulc
Correct
gap of 8 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1503 vs Sulc 1550
Sulc
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Sulc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Sulc 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +2 · Sulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.00 / Sulc 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulc)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13161784
Langer2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Sulc1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it69% 40 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger4wins
AwaySulc6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSulc leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%2 of 3
AwaySulc71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Sulc7n = 10Sulc took 7 of 10
S2Langer6Sulc4n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S3Langer5Sulc5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer4Sulc4n = 8split evenly
S5Langer1Sulc2n = 3Sulc took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerSulcL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.5−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 540 vs 322 / 64148.5%50.2%262 / 540 vs 322 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcLanger 2.00/Sulc 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer34811691M. Sulc3611311113
LAug 30 · 14:20A. Langer31991121M. Sulc4211119113
WAug 28 · 16:50A. Langer48611911113M. Sulc4411711872
WAug 13 · 13:25A. Langer3911116113M. Sulc31771161
LAug 11 · 10:55A. Langer47103111492M. Sulc471211112113
WAug 9 · 14:50A. Langer331111113M. Sulc225980
WAug 9 · 11:55A. Langer3741111113M. Sulc35118971
LAug 7 · 09:59A. Langer30191191M. Sulc4111118113
LAug 7 · 07:55A. Langer3511114362M. Sulc48691111113
LAug 3 · 10:20A. Langer3197150M. Sulc391111173
A. Langer10
WSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162WSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113LSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123LSep 17 · 06:55A. Langer1.913121111102O. Fiklik1.80111496123LSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113WSep 10 · 15:25M. Sochor2.0011119252M. Sulc1.73991111113LSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113
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