TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139349
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5113111311117911
Adam Kosacky
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched — 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Adam Kosacky below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Adam Kosacky at 80.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 4–18 Adam Kosacky Martin Sulc has won 4 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kosacky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-18 in 22
Kosacky
Correct
gap of 14 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulc 1521 vs Kosacky 1723
Kosacky
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulc 60% vs Kosacky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulc 50% vs Kosacky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulc -1 · Kosacky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Kosacky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosacky form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 4.00 / Kosacky 1.22
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Kosacky)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13139349
Sulc4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Kosacky1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 49 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc0wins
AwayKosacky10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKosacky leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc0%0 of 3
AwayKosacky100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc3Kosacky7n = 10Kosacky took 7 of 10
S2Sulc3Kosacky7n = 10Kosacky took 7 of 10
S3Sulc1Kosacky9n = 10Kosacky took 9 of 10
S4Sulc0Kosacky5n = 5Kosacky took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcKosackyS − KBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.537.8−8.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcKosackyBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 645 vs 337 / 60550.5%55.7%326 / 645 vs 337 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosackySulc 4.00/Kosacky 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.1%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kosacky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LDec 5 · 22:50M. Sulc165650A. Kosacky331111113
LDec 5 · 19:20M. Sulc32116781A. Kosacky3741111113
LOct 18 · 20:50M. Sulc4011712552A. Kosacky485111011113
LOct 5 · 16:25M. Sulc2161050A. Kosacky29111263
LSep 3 · 20:20M. Sulc35811791A. Kosacky3811511113
LAug 21 · 20:20M. Sulc2761380A. Kosacky371115113
LJul 13 · 16:55M. Sulc174760A. Kosacky331111113
LJul 3 · 09:10M. Sulc237880A. Kosacky331111113
LApr 22 · 20:55M. Sulc4311123892A. Kosacky485101111113
LApr 21 · 11:25M. Sulc4111111091A. Kosacky4213612113
M. Sulc10
LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113WSep 10 · 15:25M. Sochor2.0011119252M. Sulc1.73991111113LSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113WSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc2.20811116113O. Fiklik1.6111271152LSep 9 · 19:20M. Sulc2.003580M. Kulisek1.731111113
A. Kosacky10
LSep 16 · 18:35J. Volek3.4071511133A. Kosacky1.3011136111WSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680WSep 13 · 22:00O. Fiklik2.6091141182A. Kosacky1.45116118113WSep 13 · 20:50A. Kosacky1.441281310113O. Fiklik2.631011111292LSep 13 · 19:20D. Sykora3.251011411113A. Kosacky1.3312911752WSep 13 · 18:50V. Skokan2.631171191A. Kosacky1.4451113113LJun 7 · 18:30A. Kosacky1.361305111J. Kocab3.00111111133LJun 7 · 17:25A. Kosacky2.00491361D. Hyza1.73111111113WJun 7 · 15:55J. Kocab3.257680A. Kosacky1.331111113
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