TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13141838
Played Sep 16Finished
Jiri Volek
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71115131161311––
Adam Kosacky
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Kosacky to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Volek above · Adam Kosacky below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 87 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Adam Kosacky at 69.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Volek 1–4 Adam Kosacky Jiri Volek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Volek beat Kosacky 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kosacky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kosacky
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volek 1510 vs Kosacky 1674
Kosacky
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volek 40% vs Kosacky 80%
Kosacky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volek 20% vs Kosacky 60%
Kosacky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volek -1 · Kosacky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kosacky) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolek 3.40 / Kosacky 1.30
Signal prob.27% / 74%
Edge (Kosacky)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13141838
Volek3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kosacky1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 49 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVolek1wins
AwayKosacky4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKosacky leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKosacky100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volek2Kosacky3n = 5Kosacky took 3 of 5
S2Volek2Kosacky3n = 5Kosacky took 3 of 5
S3Volek3Kosacky2n = 5Volek took 3 of 5
S4Volek1Kosacky2n = 3Kosacky took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVolekKosackyV − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.040.8−4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolekKosackyBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 92 vs 338 / 60644.6%55.8%41 / 92 vs 338 / 606Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosackyVolek 3.40/Kosacky 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.5%
Kosacky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Volek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek331111113A. Kosacky239680
LSep 23 · 18:25J. Volek24141181A. Kosacky3911116113
LSep 23 · 16:55J. Volek217590A. Kosacky331111113
LAug 14 · 17:55J. Volek53611117182A. Kosacky55117611203
LAug 14 · 17:25J. Volek49117611610A. Kosacky54611117812
J. Volek10
LSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123WSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680LSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560LSep 10 · 17:59K. Hrnic1.831111113J. Volek1.837560LSep 10 · 16:55J. Volek2.005121131M. Sochor1.7311149113LSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113LSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113
A. Kosacky10
WSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113WSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680WSep 13 · 22:00O. Fiklik2.6091141182A. Kosacky1.45116118113WSep 13 · 20:50A. Kosacky1.441281310113O. Fiklik2.631011111292LSep 13 · 19:20D. Sykora3.251011411113A. Kosacky1.3312911752WSep 13 · 18:50V. Skokan2.631171191A. Kosacky1.4451113113LJun 7 · 18:30A. Kosacky1.361305111J. Kocab3.00111111133LJun 7 · 17:25A. Kosacky2.00491361D. Hyza1.73111111113WJun 7 · 15:55J. Kocab3.257680A. Kosacky1.331111113
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