TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13141779
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Sulc
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118511911––
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMartin Sulc above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sulc 18–33 Jan Hrncir Martin Sulc has won 18 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sulc beat Hrncir 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hrncir)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulc 2.10 / Hrncir 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hrncir)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13141779
Sulc2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Hrncir1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 21 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulc5wins
AwayHrncir5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulc80%4 of 5
AwayHrncir80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulc5Hrncir5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulc5Hrncir5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulc7Hrncir3n = 10Sulc took 7 of 10
S4Sulc4Hrncir3n = 7Sulc took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulcHrncirS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.738.1+0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulcHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 646 vs 108 / 19850.5%54.6%326 / 646 vs 108 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirSulc 2.10/Hrncir 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 15:25M. Sulc4181111113J. Hrncir33117961
WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc351311113J. Hrncir2511680
WMay 14 · 18:20M. Sulc4514711133J. Hrncir3512111111
LApr 30 · 18:00M. Sulc311011461J. Hrncir4112711113
LApr 30 · 14:55M. Sulc51861212132J. Hrncir5711111010153
WApr 17 · 20:20M. Sulc341112113J. Hrncir2351080
LApr 6 · 21:25M. Sulc48138115112J. Hrncir511111511133
LApr 6 · 19:20M. Sulc32861171J. Hrncir4111118113
LMar 16 · 21:20M. Sulc228590J. Hrncir331111113
WMar 13 · 16:55M. Sulc48121213113J. Hrncir4210101571
M. Sulc10
LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113WSep 10 · 15:25M. Sochor2.0011119252M. Sulc1.73991111113LSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113WSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc2.20811116113O. Fiklik1.6111271152LSep 9 · 19:20M. Sulc2.003580M. Kulisek1.731111113
J. Hrncir10
WSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123LSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hrncir1.721111113J. Volek2.007560LSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680LSep 10 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.4410580M. Sochor2.631211113WSep 10 · 14:55J. Volek1.839111071J. Hrncir1.8311312113LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142
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