TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Jul 26Finished
Pavel Rissky
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119411118119
Martin Sulc
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:56 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Sulc to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Rissky above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Sulc at 65.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Rissky 1–3 Martin Sulc Pavel Rissky has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Sulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sulc
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rissky 1523 vs Sulc 1461
Rissky
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rissky 40% vs Sulc 20%
Rissky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rissky 30% vs Sulc 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rissky +2 · Sulc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulc) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRissky 1.95 / Sulc 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulc)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #12304293
Rissky1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Sulc1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite67% won 57 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeRissky1wins
AwaySulc3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSulc leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRisskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySulc100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rissky1Sulc3n = 4Sulc took 3 of 4
S2Rissky2Sulc2n = 4split evenly
S3Rissky2Sulc2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricRisskySulcR − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match35.836.5−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRisskySulcBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 204 vs 320 / 63741.7%50.2%85 / 204 vs 320 / 637Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulcRissky 1.95/Sulc 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rissky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 11 · 07:25P. Rissky331111113M. Sulc164750
LMay 24 · 15:20P. Rissky35981171M. Sulc4211119113
LMar 29 · 14:55P. Rissky2766150M. Sulc391111173
LMar 8 · 16:35P. Rissky48811111172M. Sulc49117137113
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680WSep 10 · 15:55J. Volek2.2558111182M. Sulc1.57111145113LAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113
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