TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511111––––
Martin Sulc
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:42 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Martin Sulc below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 45 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 72.5%
45 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 42–12 Martin Sulc Martin Sulc has won 12 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-12 in 54
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 30 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1605 vs Sulc 1566
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 100% vs Sulc 80%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 80% vs Sulc 60%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek +6 · Sulc +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulc form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.53 / Sulc 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Vonasek)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13163274
Vonasek1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Sulc2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVonasek8wins
AwaySulc2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek87.5%7 of 8
AwaySulcn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek8Sulc2n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S2Vonasek7Sulc3n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Vonasek7Sulc3n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S4Vonasek5Sulc1n = 6Vonasek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVonasekSulcV − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.530.4+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekSulcBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 727 vs 324 / 64349%50.4%356 / 727 vs 324 / 643Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.53/Sulc 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 21:18J. Vonasek4414118113M. Sulc401291181
LSep 6 · 20:20J. Vonasek377111271M. Sulc4211614113
WAug 31 · 11:50J. Vonasek331111113M. Sulc168350
LAug 17 · 10:55J. Vonasek3911441282M. Sulc507111110113
WAug 7 · 09:25J. Vonasek331111113M. Sulc194780
WJul 24 · 08:55J. Vonasek4111711123M. Sulc336116101
WJun 23 · 21:30J. Vonasek4061112113M. Sulc331141081
WJun 23 · 19:20J. Vonasek331111113M. Sulc199280
WJun 10 · 21:18J. Vonasek4211911113M. Sulc34611981
WJun 10 · 20:20J. Vonasek331111113M. Sulc188550
J. Vonasek10
LSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113WSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113WSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113WSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192WSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432WSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123LSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113WSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752
M. Sulc10
WSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100WSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113LSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113LSep 16 · 17:25M. Sulc4.0053131192A. Kosacky1.221111117113LSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113LSep 10 · 18:30M. Sulc1.5711781172M. Sochor2.25911115113WSep 10 · 17:25M. Sulc2.101311113J. Hrncir1.6711680
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