TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Vonasek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711119811118511
Pavel Rissky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Vonasek above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 59.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vonasek 5–3 Pavel Rissky Pavel Rissky has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vonasek 1579 vs Rissky 1548
Vonasek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vonasek 80% vs Rissky 40%
Vonasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vonasek 70% vs Rissky 50%
Vonasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vonasek -1 · Rissky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVonasek 1.61 / Rissky 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13163950
Vonasek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Rissky2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVonasek5wins
AwayRissky3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderVonasek leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVonasek80%4 of 5
AwayRissky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vonasek5Rissky3n = 8Vonasek took 5 of 8
S2Vonasek5Rissky3n = 8Vonasek took 5 of 8
S3Vonasek4Rissky4n = 8split evenly
S4Vonasek5Rissky2n = 7Vonasek took 5 of 7
S5Vonasek1Rissky2n = 3Rissky took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVonasekRisskyV − RBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.136.8+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVonasekRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 728 vs 73 / 17448.9%42%356 / 728 vs 73 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekVonasek 1.61/Rissky 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rissky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 11 · 12:25J. Vonasek3811114123P. Rissky356811101
WApr 5 · 09:33J. Vonasek4041111143P. Rissky351157121
WApr 5 · 08:20J. Vonasek3811115113P. Rissky33981151
LMar 1 · 10:55J. Vonasek3975111152P. Rissky48111169113
LMar 1 · 08:55J. Vonasek38112211122P. Rissky43411113143
WFeb 15 · 10:25J. Vonasek331111113P. Rissky208750
WFeb 6 · 11:05J. Vonasek43111164113P. Rissky3983111162
LFeb 6 · 07:55J. Vonasek369611101P. Rissky4111117123
J. Vonasek10
LSep 20 · 14:20J. Vonasek1.536510M. Sulc2.381111113WSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 08:55V. Jr2.207880J. Vonasek1.611111113WSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113WSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192WSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432WSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123LSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113WSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752
P. Rissky10
LSep 20 · 14:50O. Fiklik1.801112113P. Rissky1.9191090LSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:20A. Langer2.2088111162P. Rissky1.61111188113WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091
Upcoming Matches
J. Vonasek
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P. Rissky
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