TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811811118118611
Pavel Rissky
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 62.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 3–6 Pavel Rissky Ales Langer has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rissky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Rissky
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1503 vs Rissky 1536
Rissky
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Rissky 60%
Rissky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Rissky 60%
Rissky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -1 · Rissky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Rissky) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.20 / Rissky 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Rissky)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13161780
Langer2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40
Rissky1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 10 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayRissky6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderRissky leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger50%2 of 4
AwayRissky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer4Rissky5n = 9Rissky took 5 of 9
S2Langer3Rissky6n = 9Rissky took 6 of 9
S3Langer3Rissky6n = 9Rissky took 6 of 9
S4Langer5Rissky2n = 7Langer took 5 of 7
S5Langer1Rissky3n = 4Rissky took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricLangerRisskyL − RBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match40.741.9−1.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 540 vs 72 / 17348.5%41.6%262 / 540 vs 72 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RisskyLanger 2.20/Rissky 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Rissky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rissky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer47111312113P. Rissky384151091
WAug 8 · 10:55A. Langer4211119113P. Rissky29721191
LJul 11 · 09:25A. Langer50101111992P. Rissky45122911113
LJun 11 · 13:39A. Langer184860P. Rissky331111113
WJun 11 · 12:50A. Langer5811131111123P. Rissky53131578102
LMay 24 · 14:20A. Langer4361191162P. Rissky48119116113
LNov 22 · 14:25A. Langer32114981P. Rissky3851111113
LJul 8 · 07:20A. Langer2913790P. Rissky371511113
LJun 14 · 09:25A. Langer47134712112P. Rissky5611111110133
A. Langer10
LSep 20 · 13:30A. Langer1.859880O. Fiklik1.851111113LSep 20 · 11:20A. Langer2.00811691M. Sulc1.7311311113WSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162WSep 18 · 10:09V. Jr1.831111581A. Langer1.8313611113LSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182LSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113LSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880WSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752LSep 17 · 07:55A. Langer2.38119115102A. Rek1.53811611123
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091WAug 8 · 12:55P. Rissky2.25912911113O. Fiklik1.57111011782WAug 8 · 11:55P. Rissky2.2514119133O. Varecka1.5712811111LAug 8 · 10:55P. Rissky1.50721191A. Langer2.5011119113
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
Nothing scheduled
P. Rissky
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