TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13150101
Played Sep 18Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811811––––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:10 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 56.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 45–55 Jan Vonasek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 45 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-55 in 100
Vonasek
Correct
gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1583 vs Vonasek 1576
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Vonasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Vonasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Vonasek +3
Vonasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Vonasek 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Vonasek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13150101
Jr2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 86 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Vonasek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 72 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it81% 51 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayVonasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwayVonasek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Vonasek4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S4Jr5Vonasek3n = 8Jr took 5 of 8
S5Jr0Vonasek3n = 3Vonasek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrVonasekJ − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.3−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 786 vs 353 / 72549.2%48.7%387 / 786 vs 353 / 725Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekJr 2.20/Vonasek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 07:55V. Jr4313117123J. Vonasek3811611101
WSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr361312113J. Vonasek29111080
LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr31712571J. Vonasek43111011113
LAug 31 · 10:20V. Jr33135150J. Vonasek431511173
LAug 27 · 13:25V. Jr4341181192J. Vonasek48118117113
WAug 26 · 09:25V. Jr4411129123J. Vonasek3981011101
WAug 17 · 12:55V. Jr4313712113J. Vonasek4111111091
LAug 7 · 10:29V. Jr4711911882J. Vonasek47711711113
LAug 7 · 08:25V. Jr4711871562J. Vonasek559111113113
LJun 3 · 08:25V. Jr33861181J. Vonasek4011117113
V. Jr10
LSep 18 · 07:55V. Jr2.2011129932O. Fiklik1.617101111113WSep 18 · 06:55V. Jr1.831171011113A. Langer1.8381112882WSep 16 · 10:30A. Rek1.5011781542V. Jr2.459111113113LSep 16 · 09:25V. Jr2.50615331A. Rek1.50111311113WSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123WSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123LSep 14 · 14:00V. Jr2.2091141192O. Fiklik1.60119114113WSep 14 · 12:20A. Langer1.809890V. Jr1.911111113LSep 14 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.571171211113V. Jr2.2531114782WSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr2.001312113J. Vonasek1.73111080
J. Vonasek10
WSep 18 · 08:25A. Langer2.38651151J. Vonasek1.5311113113WSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192WSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432WSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 07:55J. Vonasek1.6111611101V. Jr2.2013117123LSep 16 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.2510101131A. Rek1.5712127113WSep 14 · 13:30J. Vonasek1.53912911113A. Langer2.38111011752WSep 14 · 12:50J. Vonasek1.83116611113O. Fiklik1.8371111682WSep 14 · 11:20A. Langer2.3811970J. Vonasek1.531311113LSep 14 · 10:50V. Jr2.001312113J. Vonasek1.73111080
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