TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Fiklik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210119––––
Pavel Rissky
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Rissky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Fiklik above · Pavel Rissky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Rissky at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Fiklik 17–12 Pavel Rissky Pavel Rissky has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Rissky beat Fiklik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fiklik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-12 in 29
Fiklik
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fiklik 1536 vs Rissky 1553
Rissky
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fiklik 20% vs Rissky 60%
Rissky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fiklik 40% vs Rissky 60%
Rissky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fiklik +1 · Rissky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fiklik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiklik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFiklik 1.80 / Rissky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fiklik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13163895
Fiklik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 83 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it72% 55 of 76
Rissky1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFiklik5wins
AwayRissky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFiklik66.7%2 of 3
AwayRissky57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fiklik3Rissky7n = 10Rissky took 7 of 10
S2Fiklik7Rissky3n = 10Fiklik took 7 of 10
S3Fiklik5Rissky5n = 10split evenly
S4Fiklik4Rissky4n = 8split evenly
S5Fiklik2Rissky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiklikRisskyF − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.1−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiklikRisskyBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 1214 vs 73 / 17345.9%42.2%557 / 1214 vs 73 / 173Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiklikFiklik 1.80/Rissky 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fiklik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fiklik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik511011101192P. Rissky52129128113
LAug 8 · 18:40O. Fiklik31951161P. Rissky3811115113
LAug 8 · 15:25O. Fiklik269980P. Rissky331111113
LAug 8 · 12:55O. Fiklik47111011782P. Rissky52912911113
WJul 19 · 16:25O. Fiklik541013119113P. Rissky48121171172
WJul 11 · 14:10O. Fiklik331111113P. Rissky259880
LJul 11 · 13:25O. Fiklik4512119131P. Rissky4814811153
WJun 6 · 08:55O. Fiklik4012116113P. Rissky331051171
WApr 5 · 07:50O. Fiklik3411111113P. Rissky33114991
WDec 29 · 07:55O. Fiklik481011511113P. Rissky4912811992
O. Fiklik10
WSep 20 · 13:30A. Langer1.859880O. Fiklik1.851111113LSep 20 · 12:50M. Sulc2.101211123O. Fiklik1.67108100LSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:20A. Langer1.83111349113O. Fiklik1.83811111162LSep 18 · 10:38J. Vonasek2.10111115133O. Fiklik1.673917111WSep 18 · 09:25O. Fiklik1.83116118113A. Langer1.8381161182WSep 18 · 07:55V. Jr2.2011129932O. Fiklik1.617101111113LSep 18 · 07:25J. Vonasek1.911110711213O. Fiklik1.80612117192LSep 17 · 10:38O. Fiklik2.2510960A. Rek1.571211113WSep 17 · 09:25A. Rek1.57111259102O. Fiklik2.259101111123
P. Rissky10
WSep 20 · 15:20J. Vonasek1.6171181152P. Rissky2.20119118113LSep 20 · 13:59M. Sulc1.6771311113P. Rissky2.101111611WSep 20 · 12:20A. Langer2.2088111162P. Rissky1.61111188113WSep 20 · 11:50O. Fiklik1.731011101192P. Rissky2.00129128113LSep 20 · 10:50P. Rissky1.83311891M. Sulc1.8311911113WAug 8 · 18:40P. Rissky2.0011115113O. Fiklik1.73951161WAug 8 · 16:55M. Sulc1.80611661P. Rissky1.9111411113LAug 8 · 16:25A. Rek1.8311711143P. Rissky1.836118121WAug 8 · 15:25P. Rissky2.101111113O. Fiklik1.679980LAug 8 · 14:50A. Langer2.25111312113P. Rissky1.574151091
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