TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181416119811611
Erik Mares
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 105 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Cernik at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 25–22 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 22 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Cernik beat Mares 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-22 in 47
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1952 vs Mares 1911
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 60% vs Mares 40%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Mares +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.55 / Mares 2.30
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Cernik)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13164365
Cernik1.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 81 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Mares2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik8wins
AwayMares2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik80%4 of 5
AwayMares20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Cernik5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S3Cernik8Mares2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S4Cernik6Mares2n = 8Cernik took 6 of 8
S5Cernik3Mares1n = 4Cernik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikMaresC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.7+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 342 vs 604 / 119959.1%50.4%202 / 342 vs 604 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.55/Mares 2.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik351311113E. Mares2811980
WSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik46121166113E. Mares48108111182
LSep 19 · 15:00J. Cernik4196111142E. Mares43111191113
WAug 28 · 11:00J. Cernik4011711113E. Mares32911481
WAug 25 · 18:00J. Cernik331111113E. Mares268990
WAug 16 · 08:00J. Cernik471041111113E. Mares4612116982
WJul 24 · 11:30J. Cernik45111211113E. Mares331310821
WJul 24 · 07:30J. Cernik4161111133E. Mares371187111
WJul 19 · 13:04J. Cernik42631111113E. Mares4411117962
LJul 19 · 10:30J. Cernik341157111E. Mares4051111133
J. Cernik10
LSep 20 · 14:30J. Cernik2.505650D. Opanasiuk1.501111113LSep 20 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk1.501071112113J. Cernik2.50121131052WSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113WSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.451118113J. Cernik2.5571690WSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182WSep 19 · 19:30Z. Bilek2.7511196812J. Cernik1.407171111113LSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113LSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.371111113J. Cernik2.907760LSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181
E. Mares10
WSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113WSep 20 · 11:30E. Mares2.751111113D. Opanasiuk1.406790LSep 20 · 10:30J. Cernik1.611311113E. Mares2.2011980LSep 19 · 21:00Z. Bilek2.302411169113E. Mares1.55268141182LSep 19 · 20:00J. Cernik1.61121166113E. Mares2.20108111182LSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142
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