TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154188
Played Sep 19Finished
Dmytro Opanasiuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
14121311117––––
Erik Mares
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Opanasiuk above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 68 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 66.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Opanasiuk 19–7 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Opanasiuk beat Mares 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Opanasiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-7 in 26
Opanasiuk
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Opanasiuk 1949 vs Mares 1953
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Opanasiuk 80% vs Mares 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Opanasiuk 80% vs Mares 60%
Opanasiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Opanasiuk +3 · Mares +2
Opanasiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Opanasiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOpanasiuk 1.44 / Mares 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154188
Opanasiuk1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 82 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it70% 54 of 77
Mares2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 96 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOpanasiuk9wins
AwayMares1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOpanasiuk leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOpanasiuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayMares0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Opanasiuk7Mares3n = 10Opanasiuk took 7 of 10
S2Opanasiuk9Mares1n = 10Opanasiuk took 9 of 10
S3Opanasiuk6Mares4n = 10Opanasiuk took 6 of 10
S4Opanasiuk4Mares3n = 7Opanasiuk took 4 of 7
S5Opanasiuk3Mares1n = 4Opanasiuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOpanasiukMaresO − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.136.5+6.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpanasiukMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 280 vs 604 / 119953.9%50.4%151 / 280 vs 604 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukOpanasiuk 1.44/Mares 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Opanasiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 16:30D. Opanasiuk46121139113E. Mares47109111162
WJul 19 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk401113163E. Mares29411140
WJul 18 · 14:00D. Opanasiuk4061111123E. Mares371188101
WJul 18 · 10:30D. Opanasiuk351112123E. Mares29910100
WJul 17 · 21:29D. Opanasiuk52711911143E. Mares47115118122
WJul 17 · 20:00D. Opanasiuk4271111133E. Mares381179111
WJul 16 · 03:30D. Opanasiuk351111133E. Mares1917110
LJul 16 · 24:30D. Opanasiuk4311117952E. Mares43641111113
WJul 15 · 14:00D. Opanasiuk52121199113E. Mares39102111152
WJul 14 · 20:58D. Opanasiuk46121111123E. Mares3710134101
D. Opanasiuk10
WSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik2.25881181D. Opanasiuk1.5711119113WSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.251111113J. Cernik3.757760WSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113LSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123WSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 15 · 21:28M. Biolek1.6713290D. Opanasiuk2.101511113WSep 15 · 20:30T. Dousek2.00912110D. Opanasiuk1.731114133LSep 15 · 19:30D. Opanasiuk1.83391191M. Biolek1.8311119113WSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153WSep 15 · 13:30D. Opanasiuk1.571110117113M. Vavrecka2.2581271192
E. Mares10
WSep 19 · 18:30E. Mares1.67111112123Z. Bilek2.109814101WSep 19 · 17:30L. Zeman1.83118151192E. Mares1.831311138113LSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113WSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142WSep 19 · 14:00L. Zeman1.9171151392E. Mares1.801191111113WSep 17 · 02:30E. Mares1.7310101113183T. Postelt2.001212811162LSep 17 · 01:30M. Huk2.501113113E. Mares1.5091170LSep 17 · 24:00E. Mares1.501213101192J. Ruzicka2.501015129113LSep 16 · 23:00M. Zahradka3.50251016113E. Mares1.2823121461WSep 16 · 21:28E. Mares2.101111113V. Koubek1.675740
Upcoming Matches
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Sep 19 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.73Z. Bilek2.00—Sep 20 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk2.10J. Medek1.67—Sep 20 · 11:30D. Opanasiuk1.45E. Mares2.60—Sep 20 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk1.65J. Cernik2.10—Sep 20 · 14:30D. Opanasiuk1.67J. Cernik2.10—Sep 20 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk2.63J. Zajicek1.44—Sep 20 · 16:30D. Opanasiuk2.10J. Medek1.65—
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