TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153982
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811119811––
Dmytro Opanasiuk
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Dmytro Opanasiuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 0–6 Dmytro Opanasiuk Jan Cernik has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Opanasiuk beat Cernik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Opanasiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Opanasiuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1912 vs Opanasiuk 1918
Opanasiuk
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 20% vs Opanasiuk 80%
Opanasiuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Opanasiuk 80%
Opanasiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -4 · Opanasiuk +2
Cernik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Opanasiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Opanasiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.25 / Opanasiuk 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153982
Cernik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 20 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Opanasiuk1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 82 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it70% 54 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCernik0wins
AwayOpanasiuk6wins
2 of 6 to a deciderOpanasiuk leads 6–0, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOpanasiuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik2Opanasiuk4n = 6Opanasiuk took 4 of 6
S2Cernik3Opanasiuk3n = 6split evenly
S3Cernik0Opanasiuk6n = 6Opanasiuk took 6 of 6
S4Cernik1Opanasiuk3n = 4Opanasiuk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricCernikOpanasiukC − OBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match31.240.8−9.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikOpanasiukBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 335 vs 150 / 27959.1%53.8%198 / 335 vs 150 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukCernik 2.25/Opanasiuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Opanasiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 19 · 17:01J. Cernik207760D. Opanasiuk331111113
LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik321112541D. Opanasiuk4481411113
LJul 19 · 11:30J. Cernik3711113662D. Opanasiuk50891111113
LJul 15 · 23:00J. Cernik344117121D. Opanasiuk4411811143
LJul 15 · 16:00J. Cernik189360D. Opanasiuk331111113
LJul 10 · 14:30J. Cernik4661191192D. Opanasiuk41112116113
J. Cernik10
LSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.251111113J. Cernik3.757760LSep 19 · 16:00L. Zeman3.2511119113J. Cernik1.33351181LSep 19 · 15:00E. Mares2.25111191113J. Cernik1.5796111142LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 13 · 21:00J. Cernik1.301413123V. Koubek3.401211100LSep 13 · 20:00L. Boruvka1.531111113J. Cernik2.388770LSep 13 · 19:00J. Zajicek1.44671111153J. Cernik2.63111124132WSep 13 · 18:30J. Cernik1.361111113V. Koubek3.007770WSep 13 · 17:29T. Kos2.25211771J. Cernik1.5711911113WSep 13 · 16:00M. Zahradka4.0010121081J. Cernik1.22121012113
D. Opanasiuk10
WSep 19 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.441413113E. Mares2.63121170WSep 19 · 17:01D. Opanasiuk1.251111113J. Cernik3.757760WSep 19 · 16:30E. Mares2.63109111162D. Opanasiuk1.44121139113LSep 19 · 15:30D. Opanasiuk1.6198100L. Zeman2.201111123WSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik2.101112541D. Opanasiuk1.6781411113WSep 15 · 21:28M. Biolek1.6713290D. Opanasiuk2.101511113WSep 15 · 20:30T. Dousek2.00912110D. Opanasiuk1.731114133LSep 15 · 19:30D. Opanasiuk1.83391191M. Biolek1.8311119113WSep 15 · 18:30J. Dzida1.916111110132D. Opanasiuk1.80115712153WSep 15 · 13:30D. Opanasiuk1.571110117113M. Vavrecka2.2581271192
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